Chapter
Forecasting with "Gut"
18:13 - 25:00 (06:47)
In this podcast, the speaker talks about the concept of forecasting with their "gut," and how they feel it is essential to accurately take stock of present and future possibilities. They also discuss how forecasting with one's gut allows people to predict what will happen, not just that it will happen.
Clips
The challenge of constructing a decision-making process lies in getting as close as possible to making the best judgment given that it's subjective and limited by our knowledge.
18:13 - 19:50 (01:37)
Summary
The challenge of constructing a decision-making process lies in getting as close as possible to making the best judgment given that it's subjective and limited by our knowledge.
ChapterForecasting with "Gut"
Episode#233 - Annie Duke - How To Make Better Decisions
PodcastModern Wisdom
Making explicit forecasts can give investors a way to check and reflect on their predictions and help them gauge how well calibrated and accurate they are in their understanding of the stock market.
19:50 - 23:24 (03:33)
Summary
Making explicit forecasts can give investors a way to check and reflect on their predictions and help them gauge how well calibrated and accurate they are in their understanding of the stock market.
ChapterForecasting with "Gut"
Episode#233 - Annie Duke - How To Make Better Decisions
PodcastModern Wisdom
The use of intuition in decision-making is often compared to playing pin the tail on the donkey.
23:24 - 25:00 (01:36)
Summary
The use of intuition in decision-making is often compared to playing pin the tail on the donkey. However, by examining the process and understanding if it is being used appropriately, intuition can be a valuable tool in decision-making.