Chapter
Super Forecasters and the Simpsons
1:22:04 - 1:26:46 (04:41)
The Good Judgment Project studies Super Forecasters who are really good at predicting events like who's going to win the World Cup" and research shows that the Simpsons are very good at predicting events too.
Clips
The practice of rethinking decisions should be done in moderation so that it doesn't lead to analysis paralysis, but it also shouldn't be ignored.
1:22:04 - 1:23:05 (01:00)
Decision-making
Summary
The practice of rethinking decisions should be done in moderation so that it doesn't lead to analysis paralysis, but it also shouldn't be ignored. The optimal range for re-evaluation is still unclear but research on super forecasters suggests that a single check-in point every six months might help.
ChapterSuper Forecasters and the Simpsons
Episode1066 Positively Influence Others, Increase Mental Flexibility & Diversify Your Identity w/Adam Grant
PodcastThe School of Greatness
The Good Judgment Project uses forecasting to predict everything from election outcomes to car accidents caused by self-driving cars, and one of their top forecasters, Jean Pierre Bugam, is considered the world's best election forecaster.
1:23:05 - 1:26:46 (03:40)
Forecasting
Summary
The Good Judgment Project uses forecasting to predict everything from election outcomes to car accidents caused by self-driving cars, and one of their top forecasters, Jean Pierre Bugam, is considered the world's best election forecaster.