Chapter
The Doomsday Argument
1:04:56 - 1:12:47 (07:51)
The doomsday argument is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of humans that will ever live on Earth based on the number of humans who’ve already lived. This argument leads to the counterintuitive and controversial conclusion of estimating mankind's demise much sooner than expected.
Clips
The Doomsday argument is applied to the hypotheses about the total number of humans in the future and compares it to the 10 ball urn example, where the number of balls in the urn is estimated from a random sample.
1:04:56 - 1:10:09 (05:13)
Summary
The Doomsday argument is applied to the hypotheses about the total number of humans in the future and compares it to the 10 ball urn example, where the number of balls in the urn is estimated from a random sample.
ChapterThe Doomsday Argument
Episode#83 – Nick Bostrom: Simulation and Superintelligence
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The chance of being human number 100 billion out of 200 trillion humans is discussed, with the suggestion that it is highly unlikely and analogous to updating the probability of the urn having few balls in a low number random sample.
1:10:09 - 1:12:47 (02:38)
Summary
The chance of being human number 100 billion out of 200 trillion humans is discussed, with the suggestion that it is highly unlikely and analogous to updating the probability of the urn having few balls in a low number random sample.