Chapter
The Importance of Acknowledging Limited Knowledge
38:09 - 46:31 (08:21)
People should not treat all predictions as equally likely to be correct and should be aware of the limited knowledge they have. Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness" is recommended for cultivating this awareness.
Clips
Not all predictions should be treated as equally likely to be correct and thus they shouldn't be relied on equally.
38:09 - 41:40 (03:30)
Prediction Accuracy
Summary
Not all predictions should be treated as equally likely to be correct and thus they shouldn't be relied on equally. It's important to acknowledge the possibility of being wrong to navigate the world easier.
ChapterThe Importance of Acknowledging Limited Knowledge
Episode#338: Howard Marks — How to Invest with Clear Thinking
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
The concept of alternative histories and the importance of avoiding epistemological arrogance in thinking that we know it all are discussed, as well as the book "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the wisdom of economist Henry Kaufman.
41:41 - 46:31 (04:49)
Limited knowledge
Summary
The concept of alternative histories and the importance of avoiding epistemological arrogance in thinking that we know it all are discussed, as well as the book "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the wisdom of economist Henry Kaufman.