Chapter
The Outside View and How to Use It Effectively
55:27 - 1:06:07 (10:39)
The outside view is a more reliable way of assessing a situation than the inside view because it takes into account base rates, or the record of similar situations in the past, instead of relying solely on personal experience and information.
Clips
The outside view, or base rates, involves looking at a problem as an instance of a larger category, while the inside view relies on personal input and cherished information.
55:27 - 1:06:07 (10:39)
Base Rates
Summary
The outside view, or base rates, involves looking at a problem as an instance of a larger category, while the inside view relies on personal input and cherished information. Base rates can provide a more accurate picture of the probability of an outcome, especially in unusual or complex situations.