Chapter
The Unlikelihood of Black Swan Events
1:53:52 - 2:01:35 (07:43)
Although people worry about the possibility of black swans such as climate change, asteroids, or AI takeover, Nassim Taleb explains that black swan events are rare, and it is more important to invest in a few selective black swans and remain patient in order to reap long-term benefits.
Clips
The podcast discusses the various worst-case scenarios people worry about these days such as climate change and AI, and how to argue against them based on real merits.
1:53:52 - 1:56:09 (02:17)
Summary
The podcast discusses the various worst-case scenarios people worry about these days such as climate change and AI, and how to argue against them based on real merits. Also, an author shares his technique for editing his writing to steel man and bulletproof his arguments against his haters.
ChapterThe Unlikelihood of Black Swan Events
Episode#244: The Quiet Master of Cryptocurrency -- Nick Szabo
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
Pascal's Wager suggests that even if the probability of a certain religious faith being correct is very low, the potential infinite reward or punishment outweighs the risk of not believing.
1:56:10 - 1:57:10 (01:00)
Summary
Pascal's Wager suggests that even if the probability of a certain religious faith being correct is very low, the potential infinite reward or punishment outweighs the risk of not believing. However, the flaw in this logic lies in the fact that there are an infinite number of possible outcomes beyond religious faith, making the odds infinitesimal and impossible to reason about.
ChapterThe Unlikelihood of Black Swan Events
Episode#244: The Quiet Master of Cryptocurrency -- Nick Szabo
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
The concept of black swans is that they're events that seem highly improbable, which can't be predicted, but which have major ramifications.
1:57:10 - 1:59:12 (02:01)
Summary
The concept of black swans is that they're events that seem highly improbable, which can't be predicted, but which have major ramifications. Nassim Taleb bets on a few select black swans and bleeds in small chips for long periods of time before occasionally having some windfall.
ChapterThe Unlikelihood of Black Swan Events
Episode#244: The Quiet Master of Cryptocurrency -- Nick Szabo
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
The host argues that although some disasters might seem unlikely or unfathomable, it's better to be prepared and spend money on necessities such as Instacart delivery.
1:59:12 - 2:00:38 (01:26)
Summary
The host argues that although some disasters might seem unlikely or unfathomable, it's better to be prepared and spend money on necessities such as Instacart delivery.
ChapterThe Unlikelihood of Black Swan Events
Episode#244: The Quiet Master of Cryptocurrency -- Nick Szabo
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
The singularity is an example of a Pascal scam that many people are taken in by, including Elon Musk.
2:00:39 - 2:01:35 (00:56)
Summary
The singularity is an example of a Pascal scam that many people are taken in by, including Elon Musk.