The concept of probability can differ depending on the context, and being able to interpret it correctly can provide valuable knowledge. While not always easy to measure, probability is a critical tool in fields ranging from finance to epidemiology.
The speaker explains the relative increased risk of all-cause mortality for different health factors, such as smoking and high blood pressure, as well as how to interpret hazard ratios.
The likelihood of having a severe reaction to the SARS coronavirus is higher (10 to 15 times) for people over 65 and those who smoke a pack a day (at least 3500 cigarettes per year). Three potential risk factors for coronavirus have been identified.
The human brain is affected and influenced by numbers more than we realize, with even small percentages having a big impact on our thoughts and decision-making.
Learn about how catastrophizing can impact our ability to cope with setbacks and why the framing of information can greatly influence our reactions.
The concept of alternative histories and the importance of avoiding epistemological arrogance in thinking that we know it all are discussed, as well as the book "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the wisdom of economist Henry Kaufman.