Episode
E110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
1:38:07
Published: Fri Jan 06 2023
Description
(0:00) Bestie New Year catch-up! (2:44) Prediction 1: 2023's biggest political winner (17:25) Prediction 2: 2023's biggest political loser (21:57) Prediction 3: 2023's biggest business winner (30:34) Prediction 4: 2023's biggest business loser (42:03) Prediction 5: 2023's biggest business deal (52:41) Prediction 6: 2023's most contrarian belief (1:03:03) Prediction 7: 2023's best-performing asset (1:07:50) Prediction 8: 2023's worst-performing asset (1:14:46) Prediction 9: 2023's most anticipated trend (1:21:40) Prediction 10: 2023's most anticipated media (1:27:07) Breaking news: OpenAI reportedly in talks to sell existing shares at a ~$29B valuation Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-posts-record-revenues-for-hedge-fund-securities-operations-11672942665 https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-arabia-gathers-chinas-xi-with-arab-leaders-new-era-ties-2022-12-09/ https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/03/business/europe-natural-gas-prices.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/technology/salesforce-layoffs.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-lay-off-over-17-000-workers-more-than-first-planned-11672874304 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1598076726671642624 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/world/asia/xi-putin-china-russia.html https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1611052287954149377 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/blackstone-s-breit-gets-4-billion-from-university-of-california https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-rebels-block-kevin-mccarthy-defiance-trump-rcna64280 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chatgpt-creator-openai-is-in-talks-for-tender-offer-that-would-value-it-at-29-billion-11672949279
Chapters
The hosts discuss their predictions for what will happen in the year 2023.
00:00 - 01:06 (01:06)
Summary
The hosts discuss their predictions for what will happen in the year 2023.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), has the potential to become a major player in global politics and the direction of currency reserves, thanks to his influence over the US, China, and the Middle East.
01:06 - 10:07 (09:01)
Summary
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman (MBS), has the potential to become a major player in global politics and the direction of currency reserves, thanks to his influence over the US, China, and the Middle East. This has the potential to make 2021 a crucial year for Saudi Arabian politics.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker predicts that Nikki Haley will win the Republican nomination in 2024 and Donald Trump will face Joe Biden again in the presidential race.
10:07 - 16:14 (06:06)
Summary
The speaker predicts that Nikki Haley will win the Republican nomination in 2024 and Donald Trump will face Joe Biden again in the presidential race. They also suggest that Trump will attack Ron DeSantis based on his weight and height.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The economic slowdown, along with increasing interest rates and a lack of asset capital inflows, could result in significant problems with debt markets globally, particularly with emerging sovereign debt, making it likely that the IMF will play a major role in the coming months.
16:14 - 21:46 (05:32)
Summary
The economic slowdown, along with increasing interest rates and a lack of asset capital inflows, could result in significant problems with debt markets globally, particularly with emerging sovereign debt, making it likely that the IMF will play a major role in the coming months.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker predicts that OpenAI and America's natural gas industry will be the biggest business winners in 2023, with the latter likely to receive a billion dollar plus investment.
21:46 - 26:53 (05:07)
Summary
The speaker predicts that OpenAI and America's natural gas industry will be the biggest business winners in 2023, with the latter likely to receive a billion dollar plus investment.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The startup space is going to end up being successful as laid-off tech workers start companies together and take control of their destiny, making incredible lemonade from the lemons of these big tech layoffs.
26:53 - 32:36 (05:42)
Summary
The startup space is going to end up being successful as laid-off tech workers start companies together and take control of their destiny, making incredible lemonade from the lemons of these big tech layoffs. However, the uncertainty of valuations for growth businesses could be one of the biggest losers for 2023.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Investors commonly invest in companies with inflated valuations and receive more shares by structuring their deals.
32:36 - 40:27 (07:51)
Summary
Investors commonly invest in companies with inflated valuations and receive more shares by structuring their deals. However, the cutoff is when the market valuation of a company is lower than the total capital preference, representing a problem for investors.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This podcast excerpt delves into Elon Musk's business philosophy where he prioritizes financial flexibility over the manager or CEO class's comfort.
40:27 - 44:27 (03:59)
Summary
This podcast excerpt delves into Elon Musk's business philosophy where he prioritizes financial flexibility over the manager or CEO class's comfort.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The guest predicts that Apple may make some unexpected and potentially risky business moves to avoid being impacted by outside pressures on their core business.
44:27 - 50:06 (05:38)
Summary
The guest predicts that Apple may make some unexpected and potentially risky business moves to avoid being impacted by outside pressures on their core business. The speaker also suggests that this could include Apple having to go public and Chinese investors divesting their interest in the company.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Analysts predict a possible rift between the interests of the US and Ukraine in the event of a stalemate, leading to a potential network effect and complaints to representatives.
50:06 - 55:32 (05:26)
Summary
Analysts predict a possible rift between the interests of the US and Ukraine in the event of a stalemate, leading to a potential network effect and complaints to representatives.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The US dollar could start to trade more like a risk asset instead of a risk-free asset, and large economic trading models could be done in non-dollar denominated form.
55:32 - 1:03:14 (07:42)
Summary
The US dollar could start to trade more like a risk asset instead of a risk-free asset, and large economic trading models could be done in non-dollar denominated form. This could weaken the reserve status of the dollar, leading to the end of the US dollar as the global de facto reserve currency.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker suggests caution in trying to pick a bottom in the post-pandemic market rally as it could lead to losing a lot of money.
1:03:14 - 1:11:31 (08:16)
Summary
The speaker suggests caution in trying to pick a bottom in the post-pandemic market rally as it could lead to losing a lot of money. He recommends investing in real estate and other cashflow positive dividend-paying businesses, rather than focusing on equity price percentage gains.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
A significant percentage of people's income is spent on monthly car payments and with consumers not being able to meet their debt obligations, the U.S is predicted to run into a real wall with respect to consumer credit this year.
1:11:31 - 1:15:43 (04:12)
Summary
A significant percentage of people's income is spent on monthly car payments and with consumers not being able to meet their debt obligations, the U.S is predicted to run into a real wall with respect to consumer credit this year.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
There is a major infrastructure investment opportunity in gene editing and cell therapies, where pharmaceutical modalities use gene editing systems to adjust genetic material or utilize cell engineering to destroy cancer cells.
1:15:43 - 1:22:34 (06:50)
Summary
There is a major infrastructure investment opportunity in gene editing and cell therapies, where pharmaceutical modalities use gene editing systems to adjust genetic material or utilize cell engineering to destroy cancer cells. The future of the GOP will incorporate this populism and merge it with the established wing of the Republican party.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
A movie based on the true story of a bear who ate cocaine and went on a rampage is in the works.
1:22:34 - 1:25:30 (02:55)
Summary
A movie based on the true story of a bear who ate cocaine and went on a rampage is in the works. The genre film is compared to movies like "Lake Placid" and promises to be mind-bending and incredible.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast touches on the origins of OpenAI as a nonprofit and their initial investors who had a maximum return of 100x on the dollar invested.
1:25:30 - 1:29:28 (03:58)
Summary
The podcast touches on the origins of OpenAI as a nonprofit and their initial investors who had a maximum return of 100x on the dollar invested. They also discuss the potential of AI-based interactive video games where users can create and live in their own world.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The copyright implications of AI training data are worth discussing, especially as companies like Apple and Google hold proprietary data sets that could affect the output of AI models.
1:29:28 - 1:33:30 (04:02)
Summary
The copyright implications of AI training data are worth discussing, especially as companies like Apple and Google hold proprietary data sets that could affect the output of AI models. Absent unique data or hand-tuning weights, the same data sets will converge to the same output, raising questions about copyright protection.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The open source and non-profit approach can be a solution to technical and regulatory challenges that for-profit entities may face, especially in highly specialized areas such as law and gambling.
1:33:30 - 1:36:44 (03:14)
Summary
The open source and non-profit approach can be a solution to technical and regulatory challenges that for-profit entities may face, especially in highly specialized areas such as law and gambling.
EpisodeE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The All In Podcast turned off comments on YouTube for a couple weeks to gauge psychological effects; hosts Jason Calacanis and David Sacks disagreed with fellow host Chamath Palihapitiya's decision to turn comments off.
1:36:44 - 1:38:07 (01:22)
Summary
The All In Podcast turned off comments on YouTube for a couple weeks to gauge psychological effects; hosts Jason Calacanis and David Sacks disagreed with fellow host Chamath Palihapitiya's decision to turn comments off.