Episode
E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
2:59:58
Published: Wed Nov 04 2020
Description
Follow the crew: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Follow the bestie guesties: https://twitter.com/bgurley https://twitter.com/phil_hellmuth https://twitter.com/altcap https://twitter.com/jcpolls Show Notes: 0:00 The besties & Phil Hellmuth on Trump’s early lead, live betting odds, the Latinx reversal 10:09 Sacks intros political expert Michael Newman on vote tally timing discrepancies, why some states skew a certain way early & more 20:33 Assessing the 180 in the gambling markets & equity markets towards a pro-Trump outcome 24:18 SurveyMonkey Chief Research Officer Jon Cohen joins the show to talk about polling updates from 2016 to 2020, understanding the race so far, electoral college & more 41:51 Biden losing Florida, tax policy, cultural repudiation of the elites in 2020 50:43 Chamath on the stupidity of the establishment, socialism, Democratic ideology for 2024 if Biden loses 55:40 Mid-show predictions, Jason goes off on Trump 1:07:58 What will happen in the time until we have a clear winner, Trump as a middle finger 1:17:55 Brad Gerstner joins the show to talk about stock futures, what the Democrats keep getting wrong - coastal elites losing touch with normal people, rebuking lockdowns 1:38:24 Reviewing the race swing state by swing state 1:47:28 Bill Gurley joins the show to talk about divisiveness, urban/rural rapture & more 1:55:53 Pete Buttigieg as the future of the Democratic Party, Chamath calls out the democratic leaders 2:00:43 Reconciling middle America & the coastal elites, respecting each other’s differences, understanding Prop 22 2:11:34 Diagnosing states that flipped from Biden to Trump, anti-business California state propositions failing, union impact on legislation 2:23:01 Senate races, market talk, which Democratic candidate had the best chance of beating Trump, voting for character over policy 2:34:32 Jason & Sacks debate Russian election interference legitimacy 2:41:34 Sacks unveils his Trump Derangement Score tracker, updated outcome scenarios & more 2:51:51 Trump declaring victory could tank markets, live reaction to Joe Biden’s election night address
Chapters
The All in Podcast goes live and David Friedberg joins early on to discuss the early election results and the potential for a shocker.
00:00 - 01:07 (01:07)
Summary
The All in Podcast goes live and David Friedberg joins early on to discuss the early election results and the potential for a shocker.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The odds in the betting markets have flipped dramatically in favor of Donald Trump, leaving many surprised at his success thus far in the 2016 presidential election.
01:07 - 04:47 (03:39)
Summary
The odds in the betting markets have flipped dramatically in favor of Donald Trump, leaving many surprised at his success thus far in the 2016 presidential election.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Reporting indicates that pollsters did not understand the diversity within the LatinX community, leading to underestimated support for Trump among the group who were drawn in by his cult of personality and perceived as a leader of change.
04:48 - 09:29 (04:41)
Summary
Reporting indicates that pollsters did not understand the diversity within the LatinX community, leading to underestimated support for Trump among the group who were drawn in by his cult of personality and perceived as a leader of change.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The timing of when early vote is reported can impact the election results.
09:29 - 17:35 (08:06)
Summary
The timing of when early vote is reported can impact the election results. In North Carolina, the last counties to report early vote were rural, while states like Florida, that counted early vote in advance, had a smoother process.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Betting markets indicate that Trump may take the lead in Ohio, prompting speculation about his chances of winning the overall presidential election.
17:35 - 25:05 (07:30)
Summary
Betting markets indicate that Trump may take the lead in Ohio, prompting speculation about his chances of winning the overall presidential election.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The President's base is not small and consists of people who were not represented in state polls that failed to adjust by education.
25:05 - 31:54 (06:49)
Summary
The President's base is not small and consists of people who were not represented in state polls that failed to adjust by education. Although polls continue to show a close race in the upper Midwest, there is still uncertainty about whether Clinton will win.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker discusses how political beliefs can affect the perception of election results, and the flawed notion of treating all individuals in a certain demographic as a monolith.
31:55 - 41:35 (09:39)
Summary
The speaker discusses how political beliefs can affect the perception of election results, and the flawed notion of treating all individuals in a certain demographic as a monolith.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The U.S. Election 2020 had over 100 million early votes banked through the mail or early in-person voting.
41:35 - 45:19 (03:44)
Summary
The U.S. Election 2020 had over 100 million early votes banked through the mail or early in-person voting. The early voting results played a significant role also because of people's migration from high-tax to low-tax states.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The conversation revolves around the changes in the US political landscape and people’s responses to them, with a focus on the Democrats and Republicans.
45:19 - 54:12 (08:53)
Summary
The conversation revolves around the changes in the US political landscape and people’s responses to them, with a focus on the Democrats and Republicans.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker believes that even though the young people seem to prefer extreme leftist candidates, Joe Biden has a good chance of winning the popular vote by a margin of 4 to 5 points due to the crucial vote count in Philadelphia, even though there might be a discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college.
54:12 - 1:00:25 (06:13)
Summary
The speaker believes that even though the young people seem to prefer extreme leftist candidates, Joe Biden has a good chance of winning the popular vote by a margin of 4 to 5 points due to the crucial vote count in Philadelphia, even though there might be a discrepancy between the popular vote and the electoral college.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker expresses uncertainty about what is driving the vote for president and stresses the need for checks and balances in government.
1:00:26 - 1:08:10 (07:44)
Summary
The speaker expresses uncertainty about what is driving the vote for president and stresses the need for checks and balances in government. They are accepting the result of the 2020 election but acknowledge their lack of understanding of the situation.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker expresses concern about rising political violence in America in the wake of the election and attributes it, in part, to the partisan bias of the media and the censorship policies of big tech companies.
1:08:10 - 1:13:06 (04:56)
Summary
The speaker expresses concern about rising political violence in America in the wake of the election and attributes it, in part, to the partisan bias of the media and the censorship policies of big tech companies. He predicts a tense atmosphere but does not expect widespread violence.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The jump in tech futures suggests that tech companies will disproportionately benefit from a Trump win as they will pay little to no taxes under his administration.
1:13:06 - 1:18:00 (04:53)
Summary
The jump in tech futures suggests that tech companies will disproportionately benefit from a Trump win as they will pay little to no taxes under his administration. With a risk of a hung election seeming to be removed from the system, assets are moving in a correlated way.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The market seems to be indicating that Trump's election is a palatable alternative, as the S&P is starting to rise and the bond market predicts lower stimulus in the market, while the 30 and 10 year went from a couple hundred basis points to 50 basis points in August.
1:18:00 - 1:24:22 (06:22)
Summary
The market seems to be indicating that Trump's election is a palatable alternative, as the S&P is starting to rise and the bond market predicts lower stimulus in the market, while the 30 and 10 year went from a couple hundred basis points to 50 basis points in August.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This episode discusses how tech companies are asserting their power over what American people should read, watch or listen, leading economic migration from the San Francisco Bay area to other parts of the country due to Covid and remote working.
1:24:22 - 1:29:35 (05:12)
Summary
This episode discusses how tech companies are asserting their power over what American people should read, watch or listen, leading economic migration from the San Francisco Bay area to other parts of the country due to Covid and remote working.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The priorities of rural America often differ greatly from those of urban areas and the mainstream media, leading to a sense of disconnect and even resentment.
1:29:35 - 1:35:20 (05:44)
Summary
The priorities of rural America often differ greatly from those of urban areas and the mainstream media, leading to a sense of disconnect and even resentment. This disconnect may have played a role in electing Trump and continues to cause tension in modern politics.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This podcast episode discusses the political nature of wearing masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the debate between those who believe in wearing masks and those who do not, and the role of politics in shaping those beliefs.
1:35:20 - 1:38:27 (03:07)
Summary
This podcast episode discusses the political nature of wearing masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the debate between those who believe in wearing masks and those who do not, and the role of politics in shaping those beliefs.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The US election has resulted in a dead heat between Biden and Trump, causing uncertainty and potential losses for momentum investors.
1:38:27 - 1:41:15 (02:48)
Summary
The US election has resulted in a dead heat between Biden and Trump, causing uncertainty and potential losses for momentum investors. CNN currently shows 192 to 114 in favor of Biden.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The host talks about the possibilities of Trump losing Michigan or Pennsylvania and still winning, and the potential difficulty of him winning Wisconsin.
1:41:15 - 1:45:11 (03:55)
Summary
The host talks about the possibilities of Trump losing Michigan or Pennsylvania and still winning, and the potential difficulty of him winning Wisconsin.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The outcome of the US presidential election is unlikely to bring any significant changes to the public markets, regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins.
1:45:11 - 1:53:13 (08:02)
Summary
The outcome of the US presidential election is unlikely to bring any significant changes to the public markets, regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins. While some investors may prefer certain outcomes, the tech industry and public markets may experience uncertainty regardless of who takes office.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Democratic Party needs to put forward candidates who can tap into the desires of the middle of the country, such as a middle of the country governor or mayor, like Pete Buttigieg.
1:53:14 - 2:01:52 (08:38)
Summary
The Democratic Party needs to put forward candidates who can tap into the desires of the middle of the country, such as a middle of the country governor or mayor, like Pete Buttigieg. It is also a wake-up call for the nominating processes in both parties.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast discusses a lost script in which differences defined America, and how people in different regions with different beliefs can have varying opinions on several topics including abortion, gun laws and building regulations.
2:01:52 - 2:10:50 (08:58)
Summary
The podcast discusses a lost script in which differences defined America, and how people in different regions with different beliefs can have varying opinions on several topics including abortion, gun laws and building regulations. The podcast also explores regulatory capture and its unfortunate impact on the gig economy workers in California.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The recent win on Prop 22 in California may lead to a sensible middle ground outcome where voters are concerned about chasing businesses out of the state.
2:10:50 - 2:23:05 (12:14)
Summary
The recent win on Prop 22 in California may lead to a sensible middle ground outcome where voters are concerned about chasing businesses out of the state. If Prop 22 passes, it will set an example for New York and many other states to follow.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The market is expected to be up the day after the election, regardless of who wins, but a contested transfer of power could still inject uncertainty.
2:23:05 - 2:29:29 (06:23)
Summary
The market is expected to be up the day after the election, regardless of who wins, but a contested transfer of power could still inject uncertainty. Governor and first-time Senators tend to be elected, and Buttigieg stood out as the most articulate candidate.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker believed that the American political system would move too slowly in a way that Bernie Sanders wouldn't get elected, but between Socialism and Trump, he would prefer Trump as he can tolerate the latter's mean-spiritedness personally.
2:29:29 - 2:34:11 (04:42)
Summary
The speaker believed that the American political system would move too slowly in a way that Bernie Sanders wouldn't get elected, but between Socialism and Trump, he would prefer Trump as he can tolerate the latter's mean-spiritedness personally. Bernie, on the other hand, would have been a first and a contrast to traditional politics.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker defends President Trump's presidency and questions the legitimacy of the accusations of dishonesty and unethical behavior against him, citing the failure of the Mueller investigation to find any collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.
2:34:11 - 2:39:09 (04:57)
Summary
The speaker defends President Trump's presidency and questions the legitimacy of the accusations of dishonesty and unethical behavior against him, citing the failure of the Mueller investigation to find any collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Additionally, the speaker points out that the impeachment of Trump was not a campaign issue, suggesting that it was not a pressing concern for voters.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Fox News is aggressively calling electoral votes, with the New York Times falling behind by over 100 votes.
2:39:09 - 2:47:51 (08:42)
Summary
The Fox News is aggressively calling electoral votes, with the New York Times falling behind by over 100 votes. In addition, 81% of precincts reporting doesn't necessarily mean that precincts have finished reporting.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speakers discuss the use of ballot initiatives to overrule legislation and the potential drawbacks of passing laws directly without sufficient knowledge.
2:47:51 - 2:56:41 (08:49)
Summary
The speakers discuss the use of ballot initiatives to overrule legislation and the potential drawbacks of passing laws directly without sufficient knowledge. They also examine the stem cell ballot initiative and debate its necessity.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The US election results are too close to call, with the possibility of legal challenges from both sides.
2:56:41 - 2:59:44 (03:02)
Summary
The US election results are too close to call, with the possibility of legal challenges from both sides. The uncertainty is causing anxiety for business owners and investors alike.
EpisodeE11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Michael was a guest on the special edition of "Love You Besties" podcast.
2:59:44 - 2:59:56 (00:12)
Summary
Michael was a guest on the special edition of "Love You Besties" podcast.