Episode
E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
1:23:33
Published: Fri Jul 08 2022
Description
0:00 Bestie open: Sacks' shopping spree 2:15 Macro outlook: jobs, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, finding a bottom 39:21 Turkish government finds ~694 million mt of rare earth reserves & EU reclassifies nuclear & natural gas as "green" 48:58 Dutch farmers protests: root causes, how to move forward with smarter legislation 1:09:39 Biden's decline, Bezos responds to Biden's tweet on bringing gas prices down Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/hire-seps-rates.htm https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-dip-to-11-3-million-but-labor-market-still-historically-strong-11657122659 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/fed-sees-more-restrictive-rates-possible-if-inflation-persists https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/net-international-migration-at-lowest-levels-in-decades.html https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-conference-board-june-2022-143536146.html https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales#chart-existing-home-sales-vs-30yr-rate https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-drops-to-record-low-as-inflation-worries-grip-u-s-11656079725 https://www.forbes.com/sites/darreonnadavis/2022/07/05/88-of-americans-say-us-is-on-wrong-track/ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/ https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1544057786065092609 https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101881567/Turkey-Discovers-694-million-mt-of-Rare-Earth-Element-Reserves-with-Infrastructure-Construction-Starting-This-Year/ https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1544380486654590983 https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1544573867804348416 https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-dutch-farmers-protesting-emissions-85848026 https://www.amazon.com/The-Alchemy-of-Air-Thomas-Hager-audiobook/dp/B0046Y0BP0/ref=sr_1_1 https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-22/eurizon-fund-holds-unloved-assets-to-beat-peers-in-esg-market https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/uk-boris-johnson-resignation/ https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080 https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1543409762867494912 https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1525309091970699265 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1544370315379109888
Chapters
The speaker discusses taking their saxophone to a tailor and checking out the summer collection at Lower Piano.
00:00 - 02:09 (02:09)
Summary
The speaker discusses taking their saxophone to a tailor and checking out the summer collection at Lower Piano. They also joke about finding the same outfit as a friend at Lower Piano.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The US is experiencing a structural unemployment problem as there are two job openings for every person.
02:09 - 05:43 (03:34)
Summary
The US is experiencing a structural unemployment problem as there are two job openings for every person. Additionally, inflation is not only caused by excess demand but also by a supply problem.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The pandemic has caused a shift in the types of jobs and businesses that people used to make money, leaving gaps in parts of the economy such as fast food restaurants and coffee shops.
05:43 - 10:11 (04:28)
Summary
The pandemic has caused a shift in the types of jobs and businesses that people used to make money, leaving gaps in parts of the economy such as fast food restaurants and coffee shops. While some sectors may revert in the near term, there has been a substantial and almost permanent change in the economy due to remote work options.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The future of commercial real estate in San Francisco appears bleak due to the ongoing remote work trends, resulting in a massively low market clearing price for new leases that would be a fraction of the old ones.
10:11 - 16:26 (06:14)
Summary
The future of commercial real estate in San Francisco appears bleak due to the ongoing remote work trends, resulting in a massively low market clearing price for new leases that would be a fraction of the old ones.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Despite the ongoing pandemic, people seem eager to resume their pre-COVID lifestyles and are continuing to spend their money on travel, hotels, and other activities this summer.
16:26 - 20:26 (04:00)
Summary
Despite the ongoing pandemic, people seem eager to resume their pre-COVID lifestyles and are continuing to spend their money on travel, hotels, and other activities this summer.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The majority of the economy is turning on a dime.
20:26 - 26:02 (05:36)
Summary
The majority of the economy is turning on a dime.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The economy may be transferring supply-side issues to average consumers and their ability to purchase goods due to inflation.
26:02 - 32:16 (06:13)
Summary
The economy may be transferring supply-side issues to average consumers and their ability to purchase goods due to inflation. People are experiencing job losses, destroyed 401k's, and increased food and gas prices, leading to a supply-side recession.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The longer misguided government policies persist, the more damage and further away we'll be from finding economic equilibrium.
32:16 - 39:37 (07:20)
Summary
The longer misguided government policies persist, the more damage and further away we'll be from finding economic equilibrium. It's important to consider the earnings power of companies other than the 10 best in the world and not be dismissive of risk management.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The earth has 10 billion years of energy reserves below its crust in the form of nuclear and geothermal power, which has the potential to create a more sustainable energy economy.
39:37 - 46:17 (06:40)
Summary
The earth has 10 billion years of energy reserves below its crust in the form of nuclear and geothermal power, which has the potential to create a more sustainable energy economy. If the EU starts building nuclear plants, they could also become a net exporter of energy like the US.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Russia has the potential to cut its oil production by up to 5 million barrels a day without significant damage to its economy.
46:18 - 50:38 (04:19)
Summary
Russia has the potential to cut its oil production by up to 5 million barrels a day without significant damage to its economy. This has the potential to cause a shortage of oil and an increase in prices to up to $180 a barrel.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Ammonia, an important component in fertilizer, can cause nitrous oxide emissions that contribute to global warming.
50:38 - 55:51 (05:12)
Summary
Ammonia, an important component in fertilizer, can cause nitrous oxide emissions that contribute to global warming. It also poses a threat to waterways due to runoff from farms in the Midwest.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The implementation of carbon taxation or cap and trade systems globally will help to incentivize industries to switch to alternative, less expensive methods of production to avoid facing the taxation on the externality costs of their conventional methods of production.
55:51 - 1:01:59 (06:07)
Summary
The implementation of carbon taxation or cap and trade systems globally will help to incentivize industries to switch to alternative, less expensive methods of production to avoid facing the taxation on the externality costs of their conventional methods of production. However, there is a tendency for technocratic bureaucrats to think that the science behind climate change is more reliable than it actually is and that there are alternative ways to produce things that they may not be aware of.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker argues that the U.S. should shift from being independent to having a stronger surplus through building new, with Democrats embracing this agenda to appeal to a super majority of voters.
1:01:59 - 1:05:53 (03:54)
Summary
The speaker argues that the U.S. should shift from being independent to having a stronger surplus through building new, with Democrats embracing this agenda to appeal to a super majority of voters.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The concerns of the average American are vastly different from what political leaders are prioritizing, according to recent polling data.
1:05:53 - 1:10:11 (04:17)
Summary
The concerns of the average American are vastly different from what political leaders are prioritizing, according to recent polling data. While inflation and gas prices top the list of concerns for most Americans, elected officials seem to be focused on other issues.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Biden tweeted urging gas station companies to lower the prices of gas.
1:10:11 - 1:13:35 (03:23)
Summary
Biden tweeted urging gas station companies to lower the prices of gas. However, it should be noted that the majority of gas stations in America are mom and pop owned businesses.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Democrats might be using Joe Biden's cognitive decline as a ploy to shift to different candidates for the upcoming election, while it is important for him to reclaim more of the center of his communication strategy.
1:13:35 - 1:17:32 (03:57)
Summary
The Democrats might be using Joe Biden's cognitive decline as a ploy to shift to different candidates for the upcoming election, while it is important for him to reclaim more of the center of his communication strategy. The brokenness of the current communication strategy also points to a financially illiterate person handling it.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Phil Hellmuth disputes the credit given to him and criticizes the administration's handling of energy prices that he says are totally their fault, giving speeches where he calls out scapegoats for the situation.
1:17:32 - 1:20:01 (02:29)
Summary
Phil Hellmuth disputes the credit given to him and criticizes the administration's handling of energy prices that he says are totally their fault, giving speeches where he calls out scapegoats for the situation.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker enjoys spending time with David Sacks in person and hopes to take a photo with him and his fourth championship ring.
1:20:01 - 1:23:28 (03:27)
Summary
The speaker enjoys spending time with David Sacks in person and hopes to take a photo with him and his fourth championship ring.
EpisodeE86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker discusses the sexual tension and chemistry between their coworkers and suggests a solution to relieve it.
1:23:30 - 1:23:48 (00:18)
Summary
The speaker discusses the sexual tension and chemistry between their coworkers and suggests a solution to relieve it.