Episode
E121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
1:34:28
Published: Fri Mar 24 2023
Description
(0:00) Bestie intro! (2:58) Fed hikes 25 bps (32:35) Balaji bets on Bitcoin $1M, predictions for hyperinflation, crypto crackdown in the US (54:27) Should the commercial real estate sector receive a similar treatment as regional banks? Math and solutions on 100% FDIC insurance (1:16:04) TikTok CEO grilled by US lawmakers: What is TikTok's endgame in the US? (1:25:46) Relativity Space shoutout and bestie wrap! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-raises-rates-but-nods-to-greater-uncertainty-after-banking-stress-6ae9316f https://twitter.com/scottrechler/status/1638534824808923136 https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-property-debt-creates-more-bank-worries-b36184ba https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1636928718173003776 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WGS10YR https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676 https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Pinterest-terminate-SF-office-lease-88-Bluxome-15525421.php https://twitter.com/boazweinstein/status/1638964105917890561 https://twitter.com/mr_derivatives/status/1638772846326583296 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1638957986138959873 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520 https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1222921758375927808 https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3911036-how-to-escape-the-trap-of-the-clean-debt-ceiling-vote https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/coinbase-warned-by-sec-of-potential-securities-charges.html https://www.piratewires.com/p/2023-banking-crisis https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1448455115271143424 https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/executive-order-6102-requiring-gold-coin-gold-bullion-and-gold-certificates-be-delivered https://twitter.com/markgags/status/802597908033966081 https://twitter.com/relativityspace/status/1638753739128315906
Chapters
The speaker discusses the lucrative business of being a moderator at conferences and events, noting that many corporations and conferences are willing to pay a significant amount of money for this service.
00:00 - 01:52 (01:52)
Summary
The speaker discusses the lucrative business of being a moderator at conferences and events, noting that many corporations and conferences are willing to pay a significant amount of money for this service.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate from near zero in March 2022 to 4.75-5%, which is the fastest rate hike since the 70s.
01:53 - 10:04 (08:11)
Summary
The Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate from near zero in March 2022 to 4.75-5%, which is the fastest rate hike since the 70s. The decision to continue raising rates rather than cutting rates or standing pat was the right decision.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The impact of COVID-19 on real estate is putting pressure on banks that are overweight in 10-year bonds, loan obligations, and mortgages.
10:04 - 22:47 (12:43)
Summary
The impact of COVID-19 on real estate is putting pressure on banks that are overweight in 10-year bonds, loan obligations, and mortgages. Despite this pressure, it is not clear whether this will lead to commercial real estate owners being foreclosed on or whether the Fed will provide a backstop.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Decreased income from buildings due to the pandemic is causing real estate owners to struggle to maintain their debt service ratios, resulting in the need to refinance or negotiate lower rent prices.
22:47 - 27:13 (04:25)
Summary
Decreased income from buildings due to the pandemic is causing real estate owners to struggle to maintain their debt service ratios, resulting in the need to refinance or negotiate lower rent prices.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The practical approach to understanding the economy is to look at dollar flows instead of taking a point of view on topics such as modern monetary theory, Bitcoin and debt demand growth.
27:12 - 37:20 (10:07)
Summary
The practical approach to understanding the economy is to look at dollar flows instead of taking a point of view on topics such as modern monetary theory, Bitcoin and debt demand growth. The use of debt to demand growth on a macro perspective may cause significant stress and strain on the economy during periods of economic decline due to natural factors such as COVID-19.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Congress needs to address the US debt ceiling increase in June to address the budget deficit and meet the necessary obligations.
37:20 - 45:34 (08:14)
Summary
Congress needs to address the US debt ceiling increase in June to address the budget deficit and meet the necessary obligations. A middle-of-the-line solution could include documenting points of view on effective government spending and eliminating wasteful spending.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
There seems to be a concerted effort by the US government to crack down on crypto with the recent lawsuits against Paxos, Kraken, and others, and SEC chair Gensler's hostile stance towards crypto assets.
45:34 - 51:22 (05:48)
Summary
There seems to be a concerted effort by the US government to crack down on crypto with the recent lawsuits against Paxos, Kraken, and others, and SEC chair Gensler's hostile stance towards crypto assets.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker highlights the importance of focusing on topics that are more inclusive and touch 7 billion people instead of only focusing on Bitcoin, which is not a method for most people to hedge their existing fiat currency exposure.
51:22 - 55:12 (03:49)
Summary
The speaker highlights the importance of focusing on topics that are more inclusive and touch 7 billion people instead of only focusing on Bitcoin, which is not a method for most people to hedge their existing fiat currency exposure.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Understanding the pros of protecting deposits at small banks while also recognizing how it could lead to independent banks losing their customers to big banks.
55:12 - 58:33 (03:21)
Summary
Understanding the pros of protecting deposits at small banks while also recognizing how it could lead to independent banks losing their customers to big banks.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The value of assets held by banks may have dropped by 25%, resulting in the need for banks to borrow from the Fed to make cash available to depositors.
58:33 - 1:05:02 (06:28)
Summary
The value of assets held by banks may have dropped by 25%, resulting in the need for banks to borrow from the Fed to make cash available to depositors. The continuous movement of deposits from one bank to another is causing banks to sell bonds in the market, generating cash to pay back the Fed, causing problems similar to a game of musical chairs.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The more people you insure against a bank run, the cheaper the insurance will be, but insurance models struggle with tail events that may never happen.
1:05:02 - 1:08:16 (03:13)
Summary
The more people you insure against a bank run, the cheaper the insurance will be, but insurance models struggle with tail events that may never happen.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The banks need to protect 100% of deposits and cannot enter into extracurricular activities without raising money from investors.
1:08:16 - 1:16:41 (08:25)
Summary
The banks need to protect 100% of deposits and cannot enter into extracurricular activities without raising money from investors. The depositor and the consumer have different expectations and banking has a fundamental market failure, which should be considered by the federal government while backstopping the banks.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker believes that TikTok should be divested to an American-owned company, but expresses concern about the potential for malware and spying.
1:16:41 - 1:25:05 (08:24)
Summary
The speaker believes that TikTok should be divested to an American-owned company, but expresses concern about the potential for malware and spying. The options for divestiture are discussed, including the possibility of separating the code base and finding a suitable American buyer.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In order for space innovation to gain wider spread capital markets attention, companies will need to find business models that have near term viability and do not solely rely on government contracts.
1:25:05 - 1:31:02 (05:56)
Summary
In order for space innovation to gain wider spread capital markets attention, companies will need to find business models that have near term viability and do not solely rely on government contracts. Building businesses that generate value for consumers and markets is key to attracting broader attention in the capital markets.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast touches on diverse subjects such as the possibility of traveling halfway across the world in minutes, being a house guest in different parts of the world, and the challenges of being a social media influencer.
1:31:01 - 1:33:22 (02:20)
Summary
The podcast touches on diverse subjects such as the possibility of traveling halfway across the world in minutes, being a house guest in different parts of the world, and the challenges of being a social media influencer.
EpisodeE121: Macro update, Fed hike, CRE debt bubble, Balaji's Bitcoin bet, TikTok's endgame & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The host makes random and nonsensical statements about love, sex, and merchandise, with occasional shoutouts to their dog.
1:33:22 - 1:34:16 (00:54)
Summary
The host makes random and nonsensical statements about love, sex, and merchandise, with occasional shoutouts to their dog.