Episode
E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
1:39:10
Published: Fri Apr 01 2022
Description
0:00 Sacks' DC trip and foreign policy speaking gig 5:50 Yield curve inversion, breaking down the current state of the markets, understanding the labor market through birth rate and immigration 26:16 How the US can fix its current economic issues, reframing high-skilled immigration 48:54 SEC's new proposed rules around SPACs and climate disclosures for public companies: how will both markets be impacted? 1:10:29 Meta used a GOP firm to run a smear campaign against TikTok in the US: dirty, necessary, or both? 1:19:03 Food shortage update 1:24:33 Sacks and Jason reflect on Biden's inflammatory comments on Putin Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525 https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/part-us-yield-curve-just-inverted-does-that-mean-recession-is-coming-2022-03-28 https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/dont-fear-the-yield-curve-reprise-20220325.htm https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/restoration-hardware-stock-price-ceo-warns-big-short-economy-inflation-2022-3 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/PATH:NYSE https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/american-population-growth-rate-slow/629392 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.html https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-bidens-big-new-wealth-tax-white-house-budget-fy-2023-11648504962 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-28/manchin-pans-biden-s-proposed-tax-on-unrealized-gains-of-wealthy https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/democrats-go-directly-to-the-center https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/spacs-face-fresh-sec-legal-threat-for-overly-bullish-forecasts https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-27/spacs-can-take-away-the-insiders-advantage-in-ipos-and-markets https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-22/the-sec-will-regulate-climate https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/30/sec-targets-spacs-with-new-rules-about-forecasts-mergers.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/30/facebook-tiktok-targeted-victory/ https://www.agweek.com/news/ukraine-ag-production-could-drop-80-fertilizer-prices-to-cut-food-supply-long-term-uk-expert-says https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2022/03/wheat-in-2023.html https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/09/information-on-2021-cash-rents-with-implications-for-2022.html https://www.agweek.com/news/usda-nass-to-livestream-prospective-planting-report https://www.npr.org/2022/03/28/1089300515/biden-putin-remarks-regime-change https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-s-approval-ratings-soar-amid-russia-s-war-in-ukraine/ar-AAVI29R
Chapters
The hosts discuss an upcoming political fundraiser in DC, joking about their appearance and the party affiliation of the candidate.
00:00 - 00:30 (00:29)
Summary
The hosts discuss an upcoming political fundraiser in DC, joking about their appearance and the party affiliation of the candidate.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The yield curve, which looks at the interest rates on the two-year and 10-year bonds, can indicate the health of the economy.
00:30 - 09:06 (08:36)
Summary
The yield curve, which looks at the interest rates on the two-year and 10-year bonds, can indicate the health of the economy. An inverted yield curve, where the interest rates on the long-term bond are lower than the short-term bond, can signal an upcoming recession.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The CEOs and boards of companies will have to be precise in their earnings releases as some companies may blame macro headwinds while others have flawed business models.
09:06 - 16:03 (06:56)
Summary
The CEOs and boards of companies will have to be precise in their earnings releases as some companies may blame macro headwinds while others have flawed business models. The market may experience a valuation reset on any faint weakness, and a potential slowdown may occur due to interest rate increases, inflation, and war supply chain disruptions.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The US economy is facing a deflationary effect that can cause stagflationary effects leading to an economic slowdown.
16:03 - 25:31 (09:28)
Summary
The US economy is facing a deflationary effect that can cause stagflationary effects leading to an economic slowdown. Entrepreneurs will look for alternatives if prices rise, causing stagflation to drag on and affect the Democrats in the midterm elections.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
A discussion on the perception that a minority of people missed out on significant wealth creation over globalization and technology advances, and how political parties present the issue of immigration as a choice between embracing superstars or not having progress at all.
25:31 - 32:39 (07:08)
Summary
A discussion on the perception that a minority of people missed out on significant wealth creation over globalization and technology advances, and how political parties present the issue of immigration as a choice between embracing superstars or not having progress at all.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker reflects on the cyclical nature of society and how it ratchets down both inequities and progress.
32:39 - 40:38 (07:58)
Summary
The speaker reflects on the cyclical nature of society and how it ratchets down both inequities and progress. He also discusses lottery and lineup systems, and the different processes and odds associated with each bucket.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Working-class voters, including Hispanics, Asians, and black voters, are moving to the Republican party, which is transforming into a working-class party, while the Democrats are becoming a professional class party, leading to a massive Republican wave in November.
40:38 - 46:36 (05:57)
Summary
Working-class voters, including Hispanics, Asians, and black voters, are moving to the Republican party, which is transforming into a working-class party, while the Democrats are becoming a professional class party, leading to a massive Republican wave in November.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The SEC has the power to provide an on-ramp for people to prove that they are qualified and accredited to participate in making money through investments in startups beyond the S&P 500.
46:36 - 52:56 (06:20)
Summary
The SEC has the power to provide an on-ramp for people to prove that they are qualified and accredited to participate in making money through investments in startups beyond the S&P 500. They also proposed laws regarding reporting requirements for ESG, rooted in good ideas, but unclear on benefits for everyday people.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Private market investors have become more sophisticated over the years, but regulatory bodies determine the level of expertise required for retail investors to invest in public markets.
52:56 - 1:04:09 (11:13)
Summary
Private market investors have become more sophisticated over the years, but regulatory bodies determine the level of expertise required for retail investors to invest in public markets. It’s important to thoroughly diligence private companies to understand their business forecasts, especially when considering investments in controversial industries like tobacco or sugar-heavy products.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The emphasis on measuring bits rather than ensuring compliance with regulations has resulted in ethical dilemmas such as allowing 18-year-olds to use psychedelics legally but barring them from buying secondary shares of Stripe; a shift towards regulatory compliance is necessary to prevent the emergence of a shadow industry of measurement and consulting around carbon emissions.
1:04:09 - 1:10:27 (06:18)
Summary
The emphasis on measuring bits rather than ensuring compliance with regulations has resulted in ethical dilemmas such as allowing 18-year-olds to use psychedelics legally but barring them from buying secondary shares of Stripe; a shift towards regulatory compliance is necessary to prevent the emergence of a shadow industry of measurement and consulting around carbon emissions.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The foreign-owned app, TikTok, is a real threat as it is the number one sharing data platform used by young teens.
1:10:27 - 1:13:13 (02:46)
Summary
The foreign-owned app, TikTok, is a real threat as it is the number one sharing data platform used by young teens. The discussion revolves around whether TikTok should be allowed in the United States, while some believe that bills and proposals are not where state attorney generals or Congress should focus.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
A person describes their enjoyment of watching hours of sandwich videos, with a particular preference for sandwiches with sharp and salty feta cheese.
1:13:14 - 1:15:56 (02:42)
Summary
A person describes their enjoyment of watching hours of sandwich videos, with a particular preference for sandwiches with sharp and salty feta cheese.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Farmers around the world are making planting decisions that are driven by upside-down economics, where the cost of rent, the average rent in Illinois, for example, and the cost of production are exceeding their expected profits.
1:15:56 - 1:24:22 (08:26)
Summary
Farmers around the world are making planting decisions that are driven by upside-down economics, where the cost of rent, the average rent in Illinois, for example, and the cost of production are exceeding their expected profits. This is a major issue, and it's being monitored by the USDA; for instance, American farmers are expected to go back to planting soybeans since it offers more growth and profit than corn.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
There are speculations that the US wants to destabilize the country and topple the Russian regime by protracting the conflict, while the US policy should focus on resolving the issue instead of pursuing regime change.
1:24:22 - 1:29:39 (05:16)
Summary
There are speculations that the US wants to destabilize the country and topple the Russian regime by protracting the conflict, while the US policy should focus on resolving the issue instead of pursuing regime change.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In this podcast episode, the host and guest speaker discuss the future of Ukraine's military strategy and its stance on disputed territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
1:29:39 - 1:35:04 (05:25)
Summary
In this podcast episode, the host and guest speaker discuss the future of Ukraine's military strategy and its stance on disputed territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The hosts discuss applying for scholarships, the importance of diversity in the workplace, and the question of how to revitalize a late stage empire.
1:35:04 - 1:37:31 (02:26)
Summary
The hosts discuss applying for scholarships, the importance of diversity in the workplace, and the question of how to revitalize a late stage empire.
EpisodeE74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Freeburg is always a generous host and his chef is always exceptional.
1:37:31 - 1:38:14 (00:43)
Summary
Freeburg is always a generous host and his chef is always exceptional. Sax is late at night. The game is over by 3am.