Episode
E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
1:35:53
Published: Sat Mar 05 2022
Description
0:00 David Sacks: Man for the people 0:50 Escalating tensions over Russia/Ukraine; nuclear scare; evolving forms of warfare 16:27 Assessing impact of economic sanctions: first, second and third-order effects; exit ramps for Putin and Russia 34:23 Reflecting on if taking NATO expansion off the table would have prevented war; Putin's risk of ruin; lessons learned so far 46:12 New version of economic warfare; possibility of a regime change; comparisons to the Cuban Missile Crisis; realist vs. idealist; lessons for Taiwan 1:05:22 Market impact, increased volatility, thinking in decades, managing risk 1:19:22 Car T-cell therapy breakthroughs and approvals; CRISPR patent controversy; Sacks makes a final point Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1499535843207389186 https://www.onmanorama.com/news/world/2022/03/04/garry-kasparov-former-world-chess-champion-attacks-russian-president-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-twitter.html https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1574056/world-war-3-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-fiona-hill-us-national-security-council https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nato-meets-ukraine-calls-no-fly-zone-hinder-russia-2022-03-04 https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1499587642115117059 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/opinion/ukraine-russia-war-zelensky.html https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LUKOY:OTCMKTS https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/wheat https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1498873063378612227 https://twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/1499574209567199235 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/world/europe/lindsey-graham-putin-russia.html https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1499385705591709698 https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/germany-hike-defense-spending-scholz-says-further-policy-shift-2022-02-27/ https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/germany-aims-get-100-energy-renewable-sources-by-2035-2022-02-28/ https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/world/europe/switzerland-russian-assets-freeze.html https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/02/28/sweden-arms-ukraine/ https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/04-april/e0403h.html https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/biography-george-h-w-bush-slams-iron-ass-cheney-rumsfeld-n457911 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=RU https://twitter.com/shellenbergermd/status/1499386637066727424 https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-wests-green-delusions-empowered?s=r https://www.npr.org/2022/03/04/1084580235/russia-blocks-facebook-twitter https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/03/technology/ukraine-war-misinfo.html https://twitter.com/Ukraine/status/1497834538843660291 https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/fact-check-russia-ukraine-war-old-woman-not-giving-invading-russian-soldiers-the-finger-1920479-2022-03-04 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1496998762496946203 https://twitter.com/morganhousel/status/1499484089082007552 https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-pinned-war-stokes-stagflation-fears-2022-03-03/ https://twitter.com/zekejmiller/status/1499739582115553281 https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/national-international/wheat-corn-prices-surge-amid-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/2774260/ https://www.myelomacrowd.org/janssen-s-cilta-cel-car-t-receives-fda-approval-for-relapsed-multiple-myeloma/ https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/fda-approves-jjs-cell-based-multiple-myeloma-therapy-blood-cancer-treatment-wsj-2022-03-01/ https://www.fiercebiotech.com/research/a2-bios-activator-blocker-car-t-cell-therapies-show-early-promise-solid-cancers https://www.wsj.com/articles/crispr-patent-gene-editing-dispute-11646187911 https://twitter.com/MZHemingway/status/1499588624664657926
Chapters
The hosts of the podcast are critiquing Saks' shirt, with one host describing it as "horrendous".
00:00 - 00:24 (00:24)
Summary
The hosts of the podcast are critiquing Saks' shirt, with one host describing it as "horrendous".
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast discusses the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tensions surrounding it.
00:24 - 02:57 (02:33)
Summary
The podcast discusses the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tensions surrounding it.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, there is a danger of escalation fueled by intemperate and insane remarks by politicians.
02:57 - 10:42 (07:45)
Summary
As the conflict in Ukraine continues, there is a danger of escalation fueled by intemperate and insane remarks by politicians. This could lead to a catastrophic event for the planet.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The idea of future warfare has shifted from the traditional military battles to economic battles, which can save thousands of lives in the long run.
10:42 - 20:37 (09:54)
Summary
The idea of future warfare has shifted from the traditional military battles to economic battles, which can save thousands of lives in the long run. However, the current reactive response of seizing assets and imposing sanctions can lead to a situation where there is no exit strategy and can have economic repercussions with companies in leveraged positions and swaps.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
It is always the case that rising energy prices cause recessions, rather than a recession leading to a spike in energy prices.
20:37 - 25:27 (04:50)
Summary
It is always the case that rising energy prices cause recessions, rather than a recession leading to a spike in energy prices. If global energy shocks are significant, central banks will step in to provide liquidity to the markets and subsidies will likely be implemented to bring prices down.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This podcast episode discusses the impact of social media and partisan rhetoric on escalating conflicts and the dangerous frenzy it creates.
25:27 - 30:06 (04:38)
Summary
This podcast episode discusses the impact of social media and partisan rhetoric on escalating conflicts and the dangerous frenzy it creates. It raises concerns about the way social media can push people towards advocating for escalation instead of seeking peaceful resolutions.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The answer to how to deal with Russia, whether you believe NATO expansion is a real issue or just a pretext, is to increase economic sanctions to a point where something from two weeks ago seems like a much better place to be.
30:06 - 38:20 (08:14)
Summary
The answer to how to deal with Russia, whether you believe NATO expansion is a real issue or just a pretext, is to increase economic sanctions to a point where something from two weeks ago seems like a much better place to be. A suggestion was made to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO for a decade, thus avoiding conflict with Russia.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The current foreign policy style practiced by neocons in both the Biden and Bush administrations is similar to the "iron ass" style of diplomacy that George H.W.
38:20 - 43:39 (05:19)
Summary
The current foreign policy style practiced by neocons in both the Biden and Bush administrations is similar to the "iron ass" style of diplomacy that George H.W. Bush criticized in Cheney and Rumsfeld. Bush believed that their approach would have led to disastrous consequences if they were in charge during certain world events.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In this episode, the hosts discuss the impact and consequences of imposing economic sanctions on a large global actor, beyond just Venezuela and other countries.
43:39 - 48:15 (04:36)
Summary
In this episode, the hosts discuss the impact and consequences of imposing economic sanctions on a large global actor, beyond just Venezuela and other countries. They also touch on the power of the financial infrastructure, and the political divide when it comes to a bill to repeal restrictions on fracking.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The harmful effects of imposing sanctions on a country include economic decline, loss of jobs, and the restriction of services from major tech companies.
48:15 - 52:22 (04:06)
Summary
The harmful effects of imposing sanctions on a country include economic decline, loss of jobs, and the restriction of services from major tech companies. Regime change, the main justification for these sanctions, has had negative repercussions in the past and has proven to be an ineffective solution to geopolitical conflicts.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The complexities of the situation in Ukraine make it difficult to pinpoint what is objectively true, and any assumption that an alternative intervention or external force can win against Russia is false due to their possession of thousands of nuclear warheads.
52:22 - 57:47 (05:25)
Summary
The complexities of the situation in Ukraine make it difficult to pinpoint what is objectively true, and any assumption that an alternative intervention or external force can win against Russia is false due to their possession of thousands of nuclear warheads.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Joe Rogan discusses the importance of building an alliance with Pakistan, India, South Korea and others to deal with the eventuality of China invading Taiwan, citing concerns of coordination between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korea's Kim Jong-Un.
57:47 - 1:04:36 (06:48)
Summary
Joe Rogan discusses the importance of building an alliance with Pakistan, India, South Korea and others to deal with the eventuality of China invading Taiwan, citing concerns of coordination between Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korea's Kim Jong-Un.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
During times of rapidly changing information, the markets can become volatile.
1:04:36 - 1:06:47 (02:11)
Summary
During times of rapidly changing information, the markets can become volatile. It's important to consider where to spend your time in order to make informed decisions.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In the financial markets, good news often leads to a cycle of assumption that the good news is permanent while bad news is ignored, denied, and then panicked over.
1:06:47 - 1:11:39 (04:51)
Summary
In the financial markets, good news often leads to a cycle of assumption that the good news is permanent while bad news is ignored, denied, and then panicked over. However, a recent "print" in unemployment is causing some optimism in the market.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In the midst of current economic uncertainty, there are numerous factors at play including the cost of gas, food supply, and trade agreements which makes it difficult to predict the true impact on businesses.
1:11:39 - 1:15:47 (04:07)
Summary
In the midst of current economic uncertainty, there are numerous factors at play including the cost of gas, food supply, and trade agreements which makes it difficult to predict the true impact on businesses.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This podcast discusses the promise of CAR T-cell therapy in cancer treatment, allowing for the targeted destruction of specific cancer cells in a patient's body.
1:15:47 - 1:22:22 (06:35)
Summary
This podcast discusses the promise of CAR T-cell therapy in cancer treatment, allowing for the targeted destruction of specific cancer cells in a patient's body. The conversation also touches on the potential risks of holding the line on sanctions and running massive deficits for emerging market countries.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
MIT and Harvard have won a CRISPR patent dispute against the University of California.
1:22:22 - 1:28:40 (06:17)
Summary
MIT and Harvard have won a CRISPR patent dispute against the University of California. The US Patent and Trademark Office has cancelled certain patent applications made by the University of California regarding a gene-editing technology named CRISPR Cas9.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In this extract, the speaker discusses his thoughts on the issue of patents and the debates surrounding it.
1:28:40 - 1:33:19 (04:38)
Summary
In this extract, the speaker discusses his thoughts on the issue of patents and the debates surrounding it. Additionally, the speaker shares his opinion on regime change wars and how it has impacted his views.
EpisodeE71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Learn about the All-In Summit by typing it into Google or visiting allin2020.org, where 400 out of 600 tickets have already been sold or put aside for scholarships.
1:33:19 - 1:35:52 (02:33)
Summary
Learn about the All-In Summit by typing it into Google or visiting allin2020.org, where 400 out of 600 tickets have already been sold or put aside for scholarships.