Episode
E91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
1:09:01
Published: Sat Aug 13 2022
Description
0:00 Bestie intros 3:02 Where Masa and SoftBank went wrong, why VC isn't scaleable, Vision Fund impact 27:59 Metrics that signify a bubble or the top of a market 36:46 US macroeconomic picture 50:45 FBI raids Mar-a-Lago, Trump back in news Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://group.softbank/system/files/pdf/ir/presentations/2022/earnings-presentation_q1fy2022_01_en.pdf https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbank-reports-23-billion-quarterly-loss-as-tech-downturn-hits-11659940047 https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-81222 https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-affordability-in-june-was-the-worst-since-1989-11660312801 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FIXHAI https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1556987104219090945 https://twitter.com/andrewcuomo/status/1556990308424028163 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1546669610509799424 https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1557934401505308672
Chapters
The hosts talk about their recent activities and adventures ranging from wakeboarding to navigating the entire island of Sardinia for eight days.
00:00 - 00:38 (00:38)
Summary
The hosts talk about their recent activities and adventures ranging from wakeboarding to navigating the entire island of Sardinia for eight days.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
David Sacks joins the podcast to discuss current news topics.
00:38 - 02:38 (02:00)
Summary
David Sacks joins the podcast to discuss current news topics.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Following a $59 billion investment gain at the two vision funds, almost completely reversed over the past six months, SoftBank announced cost cutting after a $21 billion investment loss for the quarter.
02:38 - 06:10 (03:31)
Summary
Following a $59 billion investment gain at the two vision funds, almost completely reversed over the past six months, SoftBank announced cost cutting after a $21 billion investment loss for the quarter.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
SoftBank's Vision Fund made headlines when it raised over $100 billion, but its investments led to the fund losing $18 billion in 2019.
06:10 - 11:28 (05:18)
Summary
SoftBank's Vision Fund made headlines when it raised over $100 billion, but its investments led to the fund losing $18 billion in 2019. Despite this, the fund's founder, Masayoshi Son, is known for his courage in taking risks.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Excessive capital can harm the fundamental profitability and unit economics of a business, causing the business to eventually fail.
11:30 - 16:16 (04:46)
Summary
Excessive capital can harm the fundamental profitability and unit economics of a business, causing the business to eventually fail. A business should use capital as fuel to accelerate its growth, rather than letting capital become its primary asset.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The challenge of deploying large funds in a short time frame is discussed in this episode.
16:16 - 21:54 (05:37)
Summary
The challenge of deploying large funds in a short time frame is discussed in this episode. With a five-year investment life, a $100 billion fund would require $2 billion to be deployed every month, leading to larger check sizes and fewer investment opportunities.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Private company shareholders have an edge over the public because of their access to insider information before it becomes public.
21:54 - 27:17 (05:23)
Summary
Private company shareholders have an edge over the public because of their access to insider information before it becomes public. However, investing in private companies carries higher risk because of the lack of diversification and dependence on insider info, which can lead to over-leveraging and losses.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In an overheated market, the quality of business and earnings are often overlooked in favor of marked-up investments and metrics like unicorn and dekakorn.
27:17 - 33:09 (05:51)
Summary
In an overheated market, the quality of business and earnings are often overlooked in favor of marked-up investments and metrics like unicorn and dekakorn. Grounding metrics and focusing on the historical mean are essential to identify market overheating and obtain accurate valuations.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
A discussion on how inflation and interest rates have affected companies and investments in recent years, with a focus on the potential end of the period of historically low interest rates.
33:09 - 36:45 (03:36)
Summary
A discussion on how inflation and interest rates have affected companies and investments in recent years, with a focus on the potential end of the period of historically low interest rates.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The recent inflation measures on a month over month basis and unexpectedly high inflation rates have led to concerns about future rate hikes, despite some recent positive economic data points.
36:46 - 40:21 (03:35)
Summary
The recent inflation measures on a month over month basis and unexpectedly high inflation rates have led to concerns about future rate hikes, despite some recent positive economic data points.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The rise of rising revolving and variable consumer credit, coupled with an increase in rates, has the potential to outpace the ability of consumers to pay off their debts, particularly when asset values are down.
40:22 - 46:32 (06:09)
Summary
The rise of rising revolving and variable consumer credit, coupled with an increase in rates, has the potential to outpace the ability of consumers to pay off their debts, particularly when asset values are down. The key economic question is whether income gains will outpace debt service increases for consumers.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The increase in consumer debt alongside low unemployment rates suggest that individuals are choosing to take on debt to maintain their spending habits amidst rising inflation rates, rather than out of necessity.
46:32 - 50:14 (03:42)
Summary
The increase in consumer debt alongside low unemployment rates suggest that individuals are choosing to take on debt to maintain their spending habits amidst rising inflation rates, rather than out of necessity. However, with more individuals returning to work and finding employment, this trend could potentially alleviate the current recession.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The credibility of the FBI has been put in question due to past events and history, even if Trump had nuclear program information that could not be recovered through usual means.
50:15 - 53:49 (03:34)
Summary
The credibility of the FBI has been put in question due to past events and history, even if Trump had nuclear program information that could not be recovered through usual means.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Jeff Booth interrogates economist Jeffrey Sachs on how the decline of empires can lead to the challenging of institutions by the majority of citizens, and how the US citizenry's questioning of the integrity of institutions today reveals the state of the country.
53:49 - 57:45 (03:55)
Summary
Jeff Booth interrogates economist Jeffrey Sachs on how the decline of empires can lead to the challenging of institutions by the majority of citizens, and how the US citizenry's questioning of the integrity of institutions today reveals the state of the country. They discuss the FBI's role in the investigation and the challenges of servicing US debt.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast discusses the discourse around the concept of a deep state, institutional corruption, and the lethargy in government institutions that challenge Americans' freedom and liberties.
57:45 - 1:02:02 (04:16)
Summary
The podcast discusses the discourse around the concept of a deep state, institutional corruption, and the lethargy in government institutions that challenge Americans' freedom and liberties. It is suggested that unless the FBI has concrete evidence of significant wrongdoing by Trump, he will be challenging to beat in the 2024 election.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The hosts discuss the curious nature of the case against Steve Bannon in relation to the unsealed warrant and lack of prudence by the institutions involved.
1:02:02 - 1:05:04 (03:01)
Summary
The hosts discuss the curious nature of the case against Steve Bannon in relation to the unsealed warrant and lack of prudence by the institutions involved.
EpisodeE91: SoftBank's $21B+ Vision Fund loss, signals of a bubble, macro picture, Trump raided by FBI
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The use of highly militarized weapons by federal law enforcement during a standoff in Oregon is questioned, as there appears to have been no imminent threat to life.
1:05:04 - 1:08:46 (03:42)
Summary
The use of highly militarized weapons by federal law enforcement during a standoff in Oregon is questioned, as there appears to have been no imminent threat to life. The situation prompts inquiries about the standards and conditions for deploying such excessive force in such situations.