Episode
#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
1:55:40
Published: Sun Feb 07 2021
Description
Richard Craib is the founder of Numerai, a crowd-sourced, AI-run stock trading system. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Audible: https://audible.com/lex to get $9.95 a month for 6 months - Tryolabs: https://tryolabs.com/lex - Blinkist: https://blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium - Athletic Greens: https://athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month of fish oil EPISODE LINKS: Richard's Twitter: https://twitter.com/richardcraib Numerai's Twitter: https://twitter.com/numerai Numerai's Website: https://numer.ai PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LexFridmanPage - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (08:12) - WallStreetBets and GameStop saga (22:25) - Evil shorting and chill shorting (24:31) - Hedge funds (30:04) - Vlad (37:00) - Numerai (1:04:16) - Futre of AI in stock trading (1:09:55) - Numerai data (1:13:37) - Is stock trading gambling or investing? (1:17:32) - What is money? (1:20:49) - Cryptocurrency (1:24:06) - Dogecoin (1:28:36) - Advice for startups (1:44:27) - Book recommendations (1:46:29) - Advice for young people (1:50:30) - Meaning of life
Chapters
The speaker believes that modern tools of machine learning can empower people interested in trading stocks and change the nature of stock trading and money management.
00:00 - 03:53 (03:53)
Summary
The speaker believes that modern tools of machine learning can empower people interested in trading stocks and change the nature of stock trading and money management. The speaker also finds the GameStop and WallStreetBets events inspiring, showcasing how distributed systems can collaborate in taking on centralized power structures.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
This transcript contains an advertisement for a one month supply of wild-caught Omega-3 fish oil from Athletic Greens and an AI business solution from Trial Labs.
03:53 - 09:01 (05:08)
Summary
This transcript contains an advertisement for a one month supply of wild-caught Omega-3 fish oil from Athletic Greens and an AI business solution from Trial Labs.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The credibility of online communities and their ability to coordinate behavior, such as buying or selling stock, is influenced by factors such as a user's karma and past performance, and can lead to emergent behavior among anonymous users.
09:03 - 13:03 (04:00)
Summary
The credibility of online communities and their ability to coordinate behavior, such as buying or selling stock, is influenced by factors such as a user's karma and past performance, and can lead to emergent behavior among anonymous users.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The recent events with hedge funds and Reddit's WallStreetBets have highlighted the power of charismatic leaders and the potential dangers of a subreddit's ability to harm individuals or companies.
13:03 - 19:24 (06:20)
Summary
The recent events with hedge funds and Reddit's WallStreetBets have highlighted the power of charismatic leaders and the potential dangers of a subreddit's ability to harm individuals or companies. This brings up questions about the role of regular people in society and the balance of power between them and corporations or governments.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
In this podcast, the speaker discusses the potential chaos that can ensue if powerful individuals in government, finance and other positions are threatened by individuals writing bots.
19:24 - 26:05 (06:40)
Summary
In this podcast, the speaker discusses the potential chaos that can ensue if powerful individuals in government, finance and other positions are threatened by individuals writing bots. The speaker also touches on how the use of bots can manipulate political discourse and disrupt financial markets.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The speaker notes the unpredictability of hedge funds, with many companies that hedge funds like seeing a drop in stocks while those that hedge funds ignore are seeing a rise, and discusses the role that hedge funds play in the economy.
26:05 - 34:55 (08:50)
Summary
The speaker notes the unpredictability of hedge funds, with many companies that hedge funds like seeing a drop in stocks while those that hedge funds ignore are seeing a rise, and discusses the role that hedge funds play in the economy.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The speakers discuss analyzing time series data to gain fundamental understanding of the stock market and improve platform health, rather than solely focusing on market value.
34:55 - 41:42 (06:46)
Summary
The speakers discuss analyzing time series data to gain fundamental understanding of the stock market and improve platform health, rather than solely focusing on market value.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Numerai is an investment platform that allows users to use their skills in machine learning to create models that can help them earn money, but also comes with the challenge of neutralizing exposure to certain features.
41:42 - 49:03 (07:21)
Summary
Numerai is an investment platform that allows users to use their skills in machine learning to create models that can help them earn money, but also comes with the challenge of neutralizing exposure to certain features. The type of algorithms that seem to perform well in these competitions is constantly changing as the field of AI and machine learning advances.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Learn how to download and modify an XGBoost model script to build predictive models, and set up a server on AWS to run the model and make predictions.
49:03 - 53:31 (04:27)
Summary
Learn how to download and modify an XGBoost model script to build predictive models, and set up a server on AWS to run the model and make predictions.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The hardest data science problem is an ongoing competition to predict which drug compounds bind to which proteins, with billions of dollars at stake.
53:31 - 59:43 (06:12)
Summary
The hardest data science problem is an ongoing competition to predict which drug compounds bind to which proteins, with billions of dollars at stake. Researchers must use fundamental innovation as well as intuition to understand the data and create effective algorithms.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The implementation of staking on platforms like Reddit could help to eliminate bot accounts and reward users for high-quality content.
59:43 - 1:05:15 (05:32)
Summary
The implementation of staking on platforms like Reddit could help to eliminate bot accounts and reward users for high-quality content. This could potentially incentivize members to create more trustworthy communities and eliminate fraudulent behavior.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The use of numerical data and signals in the stock market is discussed, using Wall Street Bets as an example of how unconventional methods can disrupt the industry.
1:05:15 - 1:09:55 (04:39)
Summary
The use of numerical data and signals in the stock market is discussed, using Wall Street Bets as an example of how unconventional methods can disrupt the industry. The current limitations of the data are acknowledged, and the potential for advancements in the future is considered.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The rise of big data and technology in the hedge fund industry has created a demand for highly skilled individuals, leading to a third of American PhDs working in hedge funds.
1:09:55 - 1:14:44 (04:48)
Summary
The rise of big data and technology in the hedge fund industry has created a demand for highly skilled individuals, leading to a third of American PhDs working in hedge funds. With access to the same data and talent, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where one hedge fund consistently outperforms others.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Cryptocurrency represents a new concept of wealth that goes beyond cash exchanges and allows for the creation of new futures through transactions that represent agreements and little contracts between individuals.
1:14:44 - 1:23:23 (08:38)
Summary
Cryptocurrency represents a new concept of wealth that goes beyond cash exchanges and allows for the creation of new futures through transactions that represent agreements and little contracts between individuals.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The use of humor in communication can be both positive and negative, as it can create a sense of camaraderie or undermine the seriousness of a topic.
1:23:23 - 1:29:33 (06:09)
Summary
The use of humor in communication can be both positive and negative, as it can create a sense of camaraderie or undermine the seriousness of a topic. However, relying exclusively on humor can present a danger if it prevents people from taking things seriously when necessary.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Optimism is key in driving innovation because it fuels the hope of building something new and exciting.
1:29:34 - 1:35:06 (05:32)
Summary
Optimism is key in driving innovation because it fuels the hope of building something new and exciting. Despite the focus on fundraising and smoke and mirrors, genuine optimism allows for big and daring ideas to come to fruition.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The speaker discusses building high tech businesses and the importance of having resources available for advice.
1:35:06 - 1:43:02 (07:55)
Summary
The speaker discusses building high tech businesses and the importance of having resources available for advice. They also mention meeting Howard Morgan, co-founder of Renaissance Technologies who worked with Jim Simons.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The idea of learning about intersections of things can act as a useful palette cleanser as it wakes one up from their busy day-to-day activities.
1:43:02 - 1:52:26 (09:24)
Summary
The idea of learning about intersections of things can act as a useful palette cleanser as it wakes one up from their busy day-to-day activities. Listening to a successful and busy person discuss personal topics like mortality is both refreshing and insightful.
Episode#159 – Richard Craib: WallStreetBets, Numerai, and the Future of Stock Trading
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The speaker shares their experience of feeling terrified from the combination of loneliness and uncertainty brought by the pandemic, describing it as a new monster that has arrived on earth.
1:52:26 - 1:55:28 (03:01)
Summary
The speaker shares their experience of feeling terrified from the combination of loneliness and uncertainty brought by the pandemic, describing it as a new monster that has arrived on earth. They also mention a personal experience of being bedridden due to severe illness as a child, and how it relates to feeling tired during this time.