Chapter
Binary Thinking and the Misunderstanding of Probability
18:13 - 23:32 (05:19)
The misunderstanding of probability is often rooted in binary thinking instead of understanding that there are multiple possible outcomes and a percentage chance for each outcome. The desire for confirmation of priors can also cloud judgement and lead to misunderstandings.
Clips
The most successful gamblers are in it for the love of the game, not necessarily for the money, and tend to recognize the ephemeral nature of success and celebrate life in the moment.
18:13 - 19:15 (01:01)
Gambling
Summary
The most successful gamblers are in it for the love of the game, not necessarily for the money, and tend to recognize the ephemeral nature of success and celebrate life in the moment.
ChapterBinary Thinking and the Misunderstanding of Probability
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The discussion revolves around Nate Silver's statistics-based approach towards predicting election results and how people tend to have deterministic and binary thinking while ignoring probabilities in politics.
19:15 - 23:32 (04:17)
Politics
Summary
The discussion revolves around Nate Silver's statistics-based approach towards predicting election results and how people tend to have deterministic and binary thinking while ignoring probabilities in politics.