Episode
#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
40:00
Published: Sun May 29 2022
Description
This talk was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist 0:00 Nate Silver gives a presentation on how gamblers think 19:25 Bestie Q&A with Nate Silver: building probabilistic models, getting blamed for Trump winning in 2016, polarization reality, 2022 midterms Follow Nate: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538 Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Chapters
In this podcast, the host explores global societal risks and risk management with professionals who have a stake in the game, including poker players and sports bettors.
00:00 - 02:42 (02:42)
Summary
In this podcast, the host explores global societal risks and risk management with professionals who have a stake in the game, including poker players and sports bettors.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast explores the benefits of intuition and healthy competition in career choices and in promoting advancements in science and technology.
02:42 - 10:19 (07:37)
Summary
The podcast explores the benefits of intuition and healthy competition in career choices and in promoting advancements in science and technology.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Poker players possess underrated skills such as focusing their attention and being able to adapt to unexpected situations.
10:19 - 15:22 (05:03)
Summary
Poker players possess underrated skills such as focusing their attention and being able to adapt to unexpected situations. The interviewer also shares his observation on the physical appearances of some poker players.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker discusses the similarities and differences between poker, investing, and politics, and how being a highly structured philosophical thinker can make politics frustrating.
15:22 - 18:13 (02:51)
Summary
The speaker discusses the similarities and differences between poker, investing, and politics, and how being a highly structured philosophical thinker can make politics frustrating.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The misunderstanding of probability is often rooted in binary thinking instead of understanding that there are multiple possible outcomes and a percentage chance for each outcome.
18:13 - 23:32 (05:19)
Summary
The misunderstanding of probability is often rooted in binary thinking instead of understanding that there are multiple possible outcomes and a percentage chance for each outcome. The desire for confirmation of priors can also cloud judgement and lead to misunderstandings.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The potential for a constitutional crisis in upcoming elections, coupled with the increasing number of Republican elected officials who believe the 2020 election was stolen, poses a significant risk for political betting.
23:32 - 30:45 (07:13)
Summary
The potential for a constitutional crisis in upcoming elections, coupled with the increasing number of Republican elected officials who believe the 2020 election was stolen, poses a significant risk for political betting. A good bullshit detector is essential for anyone looking to succeed in the world of gambling.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The political polarization in the US has led to dangerous rhetoric and may trigger violence.
30:45 - 35:59 (05:14)
Summary
The political polarization in the US has led to dangerous rhetoric and may trigger violence. Amidst other existential threats like climate change and AI, the speaker is bearish about the capacity of the state to make good decisions in complex situations.
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker discusses J.P. Morgan's failure to recognize the potential power of the well-educated demographic who also happen to struggle with student debt, such as academics and those in media.
35:59 - 39:31 (03:32)
Summary
The speaker discusses J.P. Morgan's failure to recognize the potential power of the well-educated demographic who also happen to struggle with student debt, such as academics and those in media.