Chapter
Evaluating the Expected Value of Low Probability Outcomes
1:17:59 - 1:24:25 (06:26)
The expected value of a low probability outcome may not be as high as one thinks, and it's important to determine if the potential payout is worth the decision. Consider the long-term consequences and personal values before making a decision with a potentially high reward but also a significant risk.
Clips
The speaker values slivers of experiences of being with loved ones and enjoying life rather than making speculative decisions for earning more in the future.
1:17:59 - 1:20:13 (02:14)
Summary
The speaker values slivers of experiences of being with loved ones and enjoying life rather than making speculative decisions for earning more in the future. The experience of being with loved ones holds more value over earning money.
ChapterEvaluating the Expected Value of Low Probability Outcomes
Episode#410: Ryan Holiday — Turning the Tables
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
Exploring how understanding the expected value can help make better decisions, even when the probabilities are low.
1:20:13 - 1:22:30 (02:17)
Summary
Exploring how understanding the expected value can help make better decisions, even when the probabilities are low.
ChapterEvaluating the Expected Value of Low Probability Outcomes
Episode#410: Ryan Holiday — Turning the Tables
PodcastThe Tim Ferriss Show
Becoming probabilistically literate allows one to better separate facts from fiction and make informed decisions in matters of medicine and science, and helps to avoid making bad decisions and choosing unqualified professionals.
1:22:30 - 1:24:25 (01:55)
Summary
Becoming probabilistically literate allows one to better separate facts from fiction and make informed decisions in matters of medicine and science, and helps to avoid making bad decisions and choosing unqualified professionals. By thinking in terms of probabilities, one can better understand the risks and opportunities presented by any given situation.