Chapter
How the Market Predicts Interest Rates
12:50 - 19:37 (06:46)
The Fed sets the interest rate for the overnight rate of lending to banks, but the market predicts rates for bonds of longer terms. The prediction market reflects the belief that the Fed's measures are enough to combat inflation, as the Fed funds rate aligns with the bond market predictions.
Clips
The yield curve can be viewed as a prediction market indicating the collective wisdom of the market about where interest rates are headed.
12:50 - 16:20 (03:29)
Summary
The yield curve can be viewed as a prediction market indicating the collective wisdom of the market about where interest rates are headed. It suggests that the Fed has done enough to combat inflation as the Fed funds rate is currently where the bond market thinks it should be.
ChapterHow the Market Predicts Interest Rates
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Analyzing the 100 most valuable public company startups indexed to the 10 year interest rate, shows that when interest rates are not at zero, excess becomes unsustainable and investing in money-losing startups becomes less attractive.
16:20 - 19:37 (03:17)
Summary
Analyzing the 100 most valuable public company startups indexed to the 10 year interest rate, shows that when interest rates are not at zero, excess becomes unsustainable and investing in money-losing startups becomes less attractive.