Episode
E114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
1:12:33
Published: Sat Feb 04 2023
Description
(0:00) Bestie intro! (1:15) Macro picture update: 0.25% raise, jobs rip up, wage growth continues to slow (17:52) Interest rates impact on mega-cap company creation (33:58) Mass extinction event coming to startups, reckoning for VCs, venture debt issues (1:02:33) Adani's potential fraud, role of short sellers Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/02/03/january-jobs-labor-market https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-approves-quarter-point-rate-hike-signals-more-increaseslikely-11675278190 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com https://www.amazon.com/Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing-Essentials/dp/0060555661 https://chamathreads.substack.com/p/higher-rates-will-lead-to-the-next https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ https://medium.com/@alt.cap/time-to-get-fit-an-open-letter-from-altimeter-to-mark-zuckerberg-and-the-meta-board-of-392d94e80a18 https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fedex-to-cut-global-officer-director-workforce-by-at-least-10 https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/27/23574322/zuckerberg-puts-metas-middle-managers-on-notice https://twitter.com/tomloverro/status/1620466827519496194 https://twitter.com/msuster/status/1620653106387386368 https://twitter.com/gradypb/status/1620937502248034304 https://www.axios.com/2023/02/01/david-cahn-leaves-coatue-for-sequoia-capital https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADANIENT:NSE?window=1Y https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-30/most-adani-stocks-drop-as-rebuttal-draws-hindenburg-response https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-94313.pdf https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/03/wall-street-muddy-waters-activist-short-sellers-tesla-gamestop/672774
Chapters
The All In Podcast team pokes fun at moderators for the show's low ratings, attributing it to shadow banning by Google in response to their discussion on COVID booster shots.
00:00 - 01:11 (01:11)
Summary
The All In Podcast team pokes fun at moderators for the show's low ratings, attributing it to shadow banning by Google in response to their discussion on COVID booster shots.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The risks of inflation are slightly higher with a better chance of a soft landing, while the risk of recession is slightly lower due to the latest jobs report.
01:12 - 07:35 (06:23)
Summary
The risks of inflation are slightly higher with a better chance of a soft landing, while the risk of recession is slightly lower due to the latest jobs report. However, the Federal Reserve may increase the Fed Fund's rate from 4.5 to 5.5% to stick the landing, leading to concerns of overheating of the economy and increased labor costs.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Marginal risk will be present if companies like Stripe plan to go public, due to the uncertain market conditions and risks of money flowing into risky assets.
07:35 - 12:50 (05:15)
Summary
Marginal risk will be present if companies like Stripe plan to go public, due to the uncertain market conditions and risks of money flowing into risky assets.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The Fed sets the interest rate for the overnight rate of lending to banks, but the market predicts rates for bonds of longer terms.
12:50 - 19:37 (06:46)
Summary
The Fed sets the interest rate for the overnight rate of lending to banks, but the market predicts rates for bonds of longer terms. The prediction market reflects the belief that the Fed's measures are enough to combat inflation, as the Fed funds rate aligns with the bond market predictions.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Mark Zuckerberg claims that delegating too much work to managers can lead to a top-heavy and ineffective management structure in which junior employees end up doing all the work.
19:37 - 30:21 (10:44)
Summary
Mark Zuckerberg claims that delegating too much work to managers can lead to a top-heavy and ineffective management structure in which junior employees end up doing all the work. He also predicts that the current hype around solo capitalists and seed funds may not last in the long run.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Investor Mark Suster claims that many startups are betting on derivative plays of big platforms, leading to a high mortality rate of 50-60%.
30:21 - 41:01 (10:39)
Summary
Investor Mark Suster claims that many startups are betting on derivative plays of big platforms, leading to a high mortality rate of 50-60%. He predicts that four in five early-stage startups have less than 12 months of runway and will go out of business by late 2023/early 2024.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Technical skills are becoming more important for venture capitalists due to the increasing prominence of AI technology.
41:01 - 47:35 (06:34)
Summary
Technical skills are becoming more important for venture capitalists due to the increasing prominence of AI technology. However, it is still important that VCs possess a strong sense of curiosity and the ability to challenge management teams to meet desired goals.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The difficulty with technical people is that they are good at diligence but poor at making investment decisions.
47:36 - 52:23 (04:47)
Summary
The difficulty with technical people is that they are good at diligence but poor at making investment decisions. Someone who is formerly a great investor and has technical chops is ideal for making such decisions.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Venture debt may seem like a good option for startups looking to extend their runway, but in the current economic environment, founders are seeing harsh term sheets, foreclosures, and wipeouts of their businesses.
52:23 - 1:00:07 (07:43)
Summary
Venture debt may seem like a good option for startups looking to extend their runway, but in the current economic environment, founders are seeing harsh term sheets, foreclosures, and wipeouts of their businesses.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Hindenburg Research accuses Indian conglomerate Adani of accounting and capital markets fraud, and highlights the role of entrepreneurs in developing countries who work hand in hand with governments.
1:00:07 - 1:08:41 (08:33)
Summary
Hindenburg Research accuses Indian conglomerate Adani of accounting and capital markets fraud, and highlights the role of entrepreneurs in developing countries who work hand in hand with governments. The accusations raise questions about the role of short sellers in the market, and the gray line between leading entrepreneurs and governments in developing countries.
EpisodeE114: Markets update: whipsaw macro picture, big tech, startup mass extinction event, VC reckoning
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The SEC has proposed a rule that would require institutional investment managers exercising investment discretion over short positions to report certain data related to end of month short positions.
1:08:41 - 1:11:54 (03:13)
Summary
The SEC has proposed a rule that would require institutional investment managers exercising investment discretion over short positions to report certain data related to end of month short positions. Another proposed improvement is that people would need to disclose their short positions.