Chapter
The Risks Involved in Political Betting
23:32 - 30:45 (07:13)
The potential for a constitutional crisis in upcoming elections, coupled with the increasing number of Republican elected officials who believe the 2020 election was stolen, poses a significant risk for political betting. A good bullshit detector is essential for anyone looking to succeed in the world of gambling.
Clips
The guest speaker talks about social markets being defined by social behavior like elections and election forecasting, and the potential risks involved with being perceived to be wrong.
23:32 - 25:36 (02:04)
Summary
The guest speaker talks about social markets being defined by social behavior like elections and election forecasting, and the potential risks involved with being perceived to be wrong.
ChapterThe Risks Involved in Political Betting
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The complexities of modeling multi-way elections and financial markets involve feedback loops and are thus more challenging to understand.
25:36 - 26:23 (00:47)
Summary
The complexities of modeling multi-way elections and financial markets involve feedback loops and are thus more challenging to understand. In a polarized world dominated by social media, we need better tools to analyze complex systems.
ChapterThe Risks Involved in Political Betting
Episode#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Successful gamblers have a good bullshit detector, and it's becoming increasingly important in the current political atmosphere that both the left and right insulate themselves from feedback.
26:23 - 30:45 (04:22)
Summary
Successful gamblers have a good bullshit detector, and it's becoming increasingly important in the current political atmosphere that both the left and right insulate themselves from feedback. There's a 10 percent or higher chance of a severe constitutional crisis in 2024 due to this insulating behavior.