Inflation, which people expect to fall off a cliff, won't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want. The pendulum is swinging markedly away from capital and towards labor due to the trend around unionization, the number of states increasing the minimum wage, and Biden using an 1800s-era law to prevent a railroad strike.
The US dollar may start to trade as a risk asset instead of a risk-free asset, beginning the end of the currency as the global reserve currency. Despite high consumer debt, layoffs, and increased supply, the speaker believes that wage inflation will keep inflation from decreasing as much as predicted.
Many people, from economists to politicians, believe that the current increase in inflation is only temporary and will come back down next year.
Salaries will come back down over time as the work will be democratized across the world, and companies will soon start hiring smart and motivated people from India and the Philippines for a fifth or sixth of what a North American employee costs.
The speaker suggests that technology, automation, and AI can increase productivity and scale production which will boost the economy and help meet liability obligations, but that a high tax stopgap may be necessary in the short term to avoid inflation.
Goldman Sachs is experiencing layoffs and it's unclear how committed they are to their retail banking business, despite recent efforts through Marcus. This raises concerns as big banks like Goldman Sachs play an integral role in the economy.