Episode
E118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
1:56:25
Published: Fri Mar 03 2023
Description
(0:00) Bestie intros! (6:47) The VC FOMO frenzy in AI (25:22) Current LP mindset, VCs leaving boards, startup cram downs and mark downs (37:23) Macro update: inflation not done, weaker earnings, interest rates (52:01) Marc Benioff channels his inner Elon Musk, the stock-based compensation boom (1:11:59) Fox News facing defamation lawsuit over false election fraud claims, TikTok ban heats up, competition with China (1:34:33) Ukraine update: China's peace proposal, US strategy (1:46:34) Harvard legacy admissions, Draymond Green on Black History Month (1:50:01) Stripe chart errata, bestie wrap! Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg https://twitter.com/altcap Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-i-stood-up-to-disney-florida-woke-corporatism-seaworld-universal-esg-parents-choice-education-defa2506 https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-maher-shares-definition-of-woke-during-jake-tapper-cnn-interview https://www.economist.com/business/2023/02/28/investors-are-going-nuts-for-chatgpt-ish-artificial-intelligence https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/doug-leone-lessons-from-a-titan/id1154105909?i=1000602027979 https://openai.com/blog/introducing-chatgpt-and-whisper-apis https://twitter.com/heykahn/status/1628453782177865728 https://www.ft.com/content/21420ce2-92a1-43a0-a153-04ac7c872466 https://www.wsj.com/articles/instacart-sees-revenue-profit-boost-ahead-of-public-listing-1d7891d https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/21023.jpeg https://www.barrons.com/articles/home-prices-dropping-redfin-fac43ede https://www.google.com/finance/quote/CRM:NYSE https://s23.q4cdn.com/574569502/files/doc_financials/2023/q4/CRM-Q4-FY23-Earnings-Press-Release-w-financials.pdf https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583622-salesforce-inc-crm-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript https://twitter.com/altcap/status/1631361678582611970 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/fas123r.asp https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-deposition-rupert-murdoch-says-fox-news-hosts-endorsed-false-2020-election-claims-c9348fc0 https://www.reuters.com/technology/tiktok-develop-parental-control-tool-block-certain-videos-2023-03-01 https://www.reuters.com/technology/white-house-gives-agencies-30-days-impose-federal-device-tiktok-ban-2023-02-27 https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-committee-lays-out-case-for-china-threat-ad62c611 https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/27/chinas-peace-plan-russia-says-no-conditions-for-peaceful-solution-or-ukraine-for-now https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-depleting-u-s-ammunition-stockpiles-sparking-pentagon-concern-11661792188 https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1496886759665586177 https://twitter.com/deloreshandy/status/1629516350602264582 https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26316/w26316.pdf https://www.tmz.com/2023/03/01/draymond-green-calls-end-black-history-month-celebrate-all-year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-03-02/how-former-fugee-pras-michel-got-involved-in-1mdb-scandal-big-take https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/06/how-the-biggest-fraud-in-german-history-unravelled
Chapters
The podcast hosts catch up with a friend, discussing running a marathon in their fifties, missing each other, and poker games.
00:00 - 00:51 (00:51)
Summary
The podcast hosts catch up with a friend, discussing running a marathon in their fifties, missing each other, and poker games. They also talk about the menu for tonight’s dinner, which includes a Madeline with Tareen Aflagra, rutabaga salad, duck breast, and butterscotch panna cotta.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker went on a family trip to Japan with his wife and children, visited different parts of Tokyo, went to Kyoto, and enjoyed the cherry blossom festival.
00:51 - 03:54 (03:02)
Summary
The speaker went on a family trip to Japan with his wife and children, visited different parts of Tokyo, went to Kyoto, and enjoyed the cherry blossom festival.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In order to combat the radical left's advancement through corporations and ESG, it is important to have a good understanding of the importance of incentives, rather than just a hands-off government approach.
03:54 - 09:03 (05:09)
Summary
In order to combat the radical left's advancement through corporations and ESG, it is important to have a good understanding of the importance of incentives, rather than just a hands-off government approach. With over 500 generative AI start-ups, and $11 billion collectively raised so far, it is essential to consider these incentives carefully.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Investors have poured billions into AI companies, but experts warn that many of these companies will not survive, and the challenge will be to identify the ones that will be successful in the long run.
09:03 - 21:26 (12:22)
Summary
Investors have poured billions into AI companies, but experts warn that many of these companies will not survive, and the challenge will be to identify the ones that will be successful in the long run. Additionally, with Meta spending $20 billion in one year alone on a RV, the massive amounts invested in AI may be put into perspective.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
VC firms are now looking for AI in startups and founders are quick to market themselves as AI companies with just one feature.
21:26 - 27:02 (05:35)
Summary
VC firms are now looking for AI in startups and founders are quick to market themselves as AI companies with just one feature. With almost 600 AI startups in the market, the founders may be motivated to rapidly become the developer platform.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The venture capital industry can expect a lot of down rounds and restructuring in 2023 and 2024.
27:04 - 37:25 (10:21)
Summary
The venture capital industry can expect a lot of down rounds and restructuring in 2023 and 2024. AI will continue to receive new investment while small funds with no DPI will be hit particularly hard, according to venture capitalists.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The uncertainty in the world's economy causes everything to shut down, so it's important for allocators of capital to predict where the inflation market is going.
37:27 - 42:40 (05:13)
Summary
The uncertainty in the world's economy causes everything to shut down, so it's important for allocators of capital to predict where the inflation market is going. Two-year bond rates relative to the fed funds rate can predict where the bond market's prediction of inflation is going, and we may see a 5.5% fed funds rate soon, leading to higher interest rates for investors.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma criticises market focus on macro issues, saying it prevents investors from taking action, and says that markets are mispriced for US inflation over the next few years due to inflated inflation expectations from deflationary pressures in the last few years.
42:40 - 47:40 (04:59)
Summary
Morgan Stanley's Ruchir Sharma criticises market focus on macro issues, saying it prevents investors from taking action, and says that markets are mispriced for US inflation over the next few years due to inflated inflation expectations from deflationary pressures in the last few years.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The best investment strategy is to find and invest in companies that are expected to grow and make a profit, rather than guessing the direction of rates and inflation.
47:40 - 53:53 (06:12)
Summary
The best investment strategy is to find and invest in companies that are expected to grow and make a profit, rather than guessing the direction of rates and inflation. Despite market fluctuations, there are still great companies with excellent founders selling for $5-10 million valuations that smart investors can own a percentage of and reap great benefits.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Founder CEOs have a lot of agency that they don't always use, while many other CEOs act as if they are prisoners of their companies.
53:53 - 1:02:41 (08:47)
Summary
Founder CEOs have a lot of agency that they don't always use, while many other CEOs act as if they are prisoners of their companies. This observation has led to many conversations about how to instill courage in all levels of companies without causing harm.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This episode features a discussion on the debate about whether executive bonuses should be based on adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow per share.
1:02:41 - 1:12:02 (09:21)
Summary
This episode features a discussion on the debate about whether executive bonuses should be based on adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow per share. The importance of giving employees stock in the company is also emphasized.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The hosts on Fox News were knowingly spreading false claims about the election, which is a crucial matter, and were allowing guests to come on air and say that the election was stolen for the sake of entertainment.
1:12:02 - 1:16:43 (04:41)
Summary
The hosts on Fox News were knowingly spreading false claims about the election, which is a crucial matter, and were allowing guests to come on air and say that the election was stolen for the sake of entertainment. This is especially disappointing considering Fox often criticizes the mainstream media and the Democratic party for spreading false claims and being dishonest.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The conversation discusses Rupert Murdoch's recent testimony admitting knowledge of the falsity of statements made by his network, and raises the question of whether TV networks that knowingly spread and endorse baseless accusations should be held liable for defamation.
1:16:43 - 1:21:13 (04:30)
Summary
The conversation discusses Rupert Murdoch's recent testimony admitting knowledge of the falsity of statements made by his network, and raises the question of whether TV networks that knowingly spread and endorse baseless accusations should be held liable for defamation. They also suggest a potential rewrite of the defamation laws and discuss the possible implications for freedom of speech.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Chamath Palihapitiya discusses TikTok's estimated value of $3 to $4 billion and the desire for content curation on the platform, including a slider for users to control the inclusion of educational videos.
1:21:13 - 1:24:39 (03:26)
Summary
Chamath Palihapitiya discusses TikTok's estimated value of $3 to $4 billion and the desire for content curation on the platform, including a slider for users to control the inclusion of educational videos. Palihapitiya also mentions the increased demand for speakers at the current hearing on social media regulation.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
China's potential for a hard economic decoupling from the US could harm global economic growth and China's future growth prospects.
1:24:39 - 1:32:55 (08:15)
Summary
China's potential for a hard economic decoupling from the US could harm global economic growth and China's future growth prospects. There are concerns that efforts by the US government to onshore semiconductor manufacturing could lead to further tensions.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The spin-out of a company and making it publicly traded as an American company can create more shareholder value.
1:32:55 - 1:36:21 (03:25)
Summary
The spin-out of a company and making it publicly traded as an American company can create more shareholder value. A peace process was almost reached in Istanbul but the US threw cold water on it, hindering the potential for further progress.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Authoritarian governments prioritize their own interests above their own people and over the people of other countries.
1:36:21 - 1:39:49 (03:27)
Summary
Authoritarian governments prioritize their own interests above their own people and over the people of other countries. The Chinese government benefits from the war in Ukraine, while the Russians have a significant advantage, yet both governments disregard human rights.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
A discussion about a country provoking another country leading to war and how it relates to the current political climate.
1:39:50 - 1:43:50 (04:00)
Summary
A discussion about a country provoking another country leading to war and how it relates to the current political climate.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker criticizes the GOP and the military industrial complex for their approach towards US-China relations and their tendency to label those who want a realistic strategy for America as Putin sympathizers.
1:43:50 - 1:46:36 (02:46)
Summary
The speaker criticizes the GOP and the military industrial complex for their approach towards US-China relations and their tendency to label those who want a realistic strategy for America as Putin sympathizers.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
This podcast episode discusses the issue of legacy admissions in Harvard and compares the relative performance tenure after graduation between legacies and other students based on a study.
1:46:36 - 1:50:05 (03:28)
Summary
This podcast episode discusses the issue of legacy admissions in Harvard and compares the relative performance tenure after graduation between legacies and other students based on a study.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
It is difficult for a company to have high margins and growth rates at the same time, and this should be taken into account for valuations.
1:50:05 - 1:52:48 (02:42)
Summary
It is difficult for a company to have high margins and growth rates at the same time, and this should be taken into account for valuations. The previous company valuation was very expectation heavy.
EpisodeE118: AI FOMO frenzy, macro update, Fox vs Dominion, US vs China & more with Brad Gerstner
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker recounts his experience meeting with the Vice Chairman of Security for China, where he was asked for an introduction to President Trump after going through several levels of security including surrendering all phones and meeting in a different room than planned.
1:52:48 - 1:56:11 (03:22)
Summary
The speaker recounts his experience meeting with the Vice Chairman of Security for China, where he was asked for an introduction to President Trump after going through several levels of security including surrendering all phones and meeting in a different room than planned.