Episode
E81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
51:32
Published: Mon May 23 2022
Description
This conversation was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist 0:00 Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner break down the state and historical significance of 2022's market downturn 12:27 How VCs will handle capital commitments from LPs, underwriting startups in the new reality 24:14 Bull run mistakes, why VCs don't underwrite lower valuations, handling distributions 33:52 Gurley's take on WeCrashed & Super Pumped TV series, how sophisticated investors got "gaslit" by the market, influx of capital creating consumer-surplus businesses 47:54 Brad predicts the market for next year, Bill gives post-Benchmark plans Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Chapters
Brad Gersner and Bill Gurley are joined by David Satterthwaite to discuss open-sourcing investment strategies and predicting economic downturns.
00:00 - 00:37 (00:36)
Summary
Brad Gersner and Bill Gurley are joined by David Satterthwaite to discuss open-sourcing investment strategies and predicting economic downturns.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Early stage investors and founders may find it easier to access talent and take risks during a market downturn, but there may be a longer wait for success on the other side.
00:37 - 07:15 (06:37)
Summary
Early stage investors and founders may find it easier to access talent and take risks during a market downturn, but there may be a longer wait for success on the other side.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The podcast discusses the disconnect between the current state of the economy and the reality of the future market, including the downfall of household net worth and the potential shift in risk-on behavior.
07:15 - 13:46 (06:30)
Summary
The podcast discusses the disconnect between the current state of the economy and the reality of the future market, including the downfall of household net worth and the potential shift in risk-on behavior.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In this episode, the speaker talks about the capital deployment and private equity for the next three years.
13:46 - 18:54 (05:08)
Summary
In this episode, the speaker talks about the capital deployment and private equity for the next three years. They also discuss how investing works and how it starts with investing and ends with knowledgeable and experienced investors.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Out of all the millions of software companies that have been started, there are only 21 that are worth more than $25 billion dollars in all the public markets.
18:54 - 24:40 (05:46)
Summary
Out of all the millions of software companies that have been started, there are only 21 that are worth more than $25 billion dollars in all the public markets. The history of software shows that only very few companies reach one billion dollars in revenue.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The trend towards evergreen funds and permanent capital structures is being considered in Silicon Valley as an alternative to the traditional distribution model.
24:40 - 28:58 (04:17)
Summary
The trend towards evergreen funds and permanent capital structures is being considered in Silicon Valley as an alternative to the traditional distribution model. However, the decision to hold investments indefinitely versus distributing may be influenced by factors such as funding goals, governance, and personal objectives.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The founders of the venture fund, Andreessen Horowitz, discuss secondary sales and permanent funds outlining some of the challenges they face.
28:58 - 33:50 (04:52)
Summary
The founders of the venture fund, Andreessen Horowitz, discuss secondary sales and permanent funds outlining some of the challenges they face. They mention their relationship with partners in the fund and the potential of permanent funds in recent times.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The current market conditions can present a massive opportunity for investors who are willing to take risks.
33:50 - 40:20 (06:29)
Summary
The current market conditions can present a massive opportunity for investors who are willing to take risks. Giant hedge funds have played a crucial role in setting industry valuations, but their decisions may not always be accurate.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Is employing negative unit economics as a growth strategy and relying on consumer surplus businesses to become profitable a reasonable tactic?
40:20 - 47:34 (07:14)
Summary
Is employing negative unit economics as a growth strategy and relying on consumer surplus businesses to become profitable a reasonable tactic? This is a question that needs to be explored as some startups are taking advantage of this trend.
EpisodeE81: All-In Summit: Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner on markets, downturns & investment cycles
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The speaker believes that growth stocks will be higher this time next year, but there might be a significant decrease before the upward trend due to the counterfactual to the hyperinflation argument.
47:34 - 50:38 (03:03)
Summary
The speaker believes that growth stocks will be higher this time next year, but there might be a significant decrease before the upward trend due to the counterfactual to the hyperinflation argument. They are also excited about public stocks.