Episode
E101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
1:41:05
Published: Sat Oct 22 2022
Description
(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner joins in place of Sacks, and brigadoons! (2:02) Ye's current situation and acquisition of Parler (14:17) Snap drops ~30%, corporate misgovernance, super-voting shares (32:53) Macro outlook, Stability AI $101M fundraise, VC fund metrics (1:05:38) The difficulty of active stock picking and valuing businesses (1:21:38) Lyft vs Gavin Newsom on Prop 30, PSA from Chamath Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SNAP:NYSE https://www.statista.com/statistics/545967/snapchat-app-dau https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/20/musk-twitter-acquisition-staff-cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/digital-media-firm-stability-ai-raises-funds-at-1-billion-value https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1520643441994387456 https://www.wsj.com/articles/lyft-battles-gavin-newsom-over-california-measure-to-fund-evs-11665864256 https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/30 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Chapters
The new ownership at Twitter is expected to bring a change in how spam is managed on the platform.
00:00 - 01:36 (01:36)
Summary
The new ownership at Twitter is expected to bring a change in how spam is managed on the platform. Brigadoon, a technique to soften conversations, requires four or more accounts to reply to each other to create a sense of community.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In a world where social media is accessible to everyone, both good and bad content can go viral.
01:36 - 10:24 (08:48)
Summary
In a world where social media is accessible to everyone, both good and bad content can go viral. The danger of social media is the acceleration of outrage, making it easier for editorialized voices to impact people's lives in a negative way.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The recent drop in Snapchat's stock price raises questions about the governing principles of social networks in moments when harmful content is being spread.
10:24 - 16:20 (05:55)
Summary
The recent drop in Snapchat's stock price raises questions about the governing principles of social networks in moments when harmful content is being spread. Society needs to consider the possibility of allowing family members or healthcare providers to flag and take control of accounts that are sharing offensive or dangerous content.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Facebook has experienced a significant decline in its stock price and is the most affected by Apple's app tracking transparency.
16:21 - 26:52 (10:31)
Summary
Facebook has experienced a significant decline in its stock price and is the most affected by Apple's app tracking transparency. Stock prices tend to ebb and flow based on friction or momentum, obscuring what is going on in the company.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The transition from low to high rates will be challenging for companies, leading to two years of upheaval in the market.
26:52 - 37:08 (10:15)
Summary
The transition from low to high rates will be challenging for companies, leading to two years of upheaval in the market. The next decade will be about company alpha and innovation in new technologies.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In this transcript, the speaker talks about the current dislocations happening in the stock markets, with average stocks down 20% and some down as much as 90%, yet it's not the time to call the big short.
37:08 - 42:22 (05:14)
Summary
In this transcript, the speaker talks about the current dislocations happening in the stock markets, with average stocks down 20% and some down as much as 90%, yet it's not the time to call the big short. They also discuss how small and mid-cap companies will deal with the aftermath of underskilled leadership.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The top quartile data from Cambridge Associates shows that the average company would be worth about three to four billion dollars if successfully invested in, with valuations ranging depending on the asymmetric outcome potential.
42:22 - 47:16 (04:54)
Summary
The top quartile data from Cambridge Associates shows that the average company would be worth about three to four billion dollars if successfully invested in, with valuations ranging depending on the asymmetric outcome potential.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The returns of private equity online funds are expected to revert to the mean line, resulting in markdowns in portfolios.
47:16 - 50:57 (03:40)
Summary
The returns of private equity online funds are expected to revert to the mean line, resulting in markdowns in portfolios. The vintage from 2015 to 2018 is likely to hit the expected mean return, resulting in less profit for LPs and GPs.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
When highly correlated assets go down in the market, they go down the most due to having the most investors, making them the most highly trafficked in an upmarket.
50:57 - 56:23 (05:25)
Summary
When highly correlated assets go down in the market, they go down the most due to having the most investors, making them the most highly trafficked in an upmarket. Investors can predict potential impairment by calculating correlations and overlaps, which can lead to suffering from market beta in a downcycle for investments with high correlations and overlaps.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The venture market operates as a power law market where founders owning more of the company ultimately leads to higher percentage ownership when the company is sold or goes public, while investors left out of good deals see their returns diminish.
56:23 - 1:03:44 (07:20)
Summary
The venture market operates as a power law market where founders owning more of the company ultimately leads to higher percentage ownership when the company is sold or goes public, while investors left out of good deals see their returns diminish. This results in a multi-decade cycle of capital in and capital out.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Understanding how business performance translates into financial outcomes is crucial in determining the total value of a company and if the price you are paying for a stock is fair.
1:03:44 - 1:12:01 (08:17)
Summary
Understanding how business performance translates into financial outcomes is crucial in determining the total value of a company and if the price you are paying for a stock is fair. It is important to learn how to read an income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The decision to invest in the stock market cannot be solely based on a thesis of a particular stock's potential.
1:12:01 - 1:16:01 (04:00)
Summary
The decision to invest in the stock market cannot be solely based on a thesis of a particular stock's potential. It is crucial to also consider other factors such as market access, thoughtful decision-making, and constructing all-weather portfolios.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The most predictable way to make money is to own the S&P 500, which is a dynamic index of the 500 best companies in the world.
1:16:01 - 1:21:59 (05:58)
Summary
The most predictable way to make money is to own the S&P 500, which is a dynamic index of the 500 best companies in the world. The great investors employ analytical depth and rigor to be successful at picking stocks and investing in them, but this does not make for good TikTok content.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Some wealthy high-income earners are leaving California for states with lower tax rates, and some fear that raising the rates even further could cause a net loss of tax dollars.
1:21:59 - 1:32:08 (10:08)
Summary
Some wealthy high-income earners are leaving California for states with lower tax rates, and some fear that raising the rates even further could cause a net loss of tax dollars. Despite this, it seems likely that California will introduce higher tax rates in the future.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
The conversation around plant-based milk substitutes is getting more intense, with some customers feeling frustrated over the use of chemical additives and calling for simpler options.
1:32:08 - 1:35:57 (03:49)
Summary
The conversation around plant-based milk substitutes is getting more intense, with some customers feeling frustrated over the use of chemical additives and calling for simpler options. Others argue that the emotional attachment to cow's milk is impeding progress towards more sustainable and ethical alternatives.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
In the next decade or so, plant-based milk alternatives such as oat milk are projected to become more prevalent in the market and may soon rival traditional cow's milk.
1:35:57 - 1:38:01 (02:03)
Summary
In the next decade or so, plant-based milk alternatives such as oat milk are projected to become more prevalent in the market and may soon rival traditional cow's milk. This podcast discusses the potential rise of oat milk and its growing popularity.
EpisodeE101: Ye acquires Parler, Snap drops 30%, macro outlook, VC metrics, valuing stocks & more
PodcastAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Precision fermentation or bio manufacturing involves placing the DNA from animals into yeast or bacterial cells to produce identical proteins without needing to grow whole animals.
1:38:01 - 1:41:17 (03:16)
Summary
Precision fermentation or bio manufacturing involves placing the DNA from animals into yeast or bacterial cells to produce identical proteins without needing to grow whole animals.