Episode
#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
4:18:35
Published: Thu Jun 09 2022
Description
Robin Hanson is a professor at George Mason University and researcher at Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Lambda: https://lambdalabs.com/lex - Audible: https://audible.com/lex - BiOptimizers: http://www.magbreakthrough.com/lex to get 10% off - BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex to get 10% off - ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod and use code LexPod to get 3 months free EPISODE LINKS: Robin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson Robin's Website: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson Grabby Aliens (paper): https://grabbyaliens.com/paper The Elephant in the Brain (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0197551955/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20 The Age of Em (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0198817827/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20 PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (06:49) - Grabby aliens (44:33) - War and competition (50:07) - Global government (1:02:58) - Humanity's future (1:13:00) - Hello aliens (1:40:03) - UFO sightings (2:04:40) - Conspiracy theories (2:12:58) - Elephant in the brain (2:26:29) - Medicine (2:38:58) - Institutions (3:05:52) - Physics (3:10:43) - Artificial intelligence (3:28:32) - Economics (3:31:53) - Political science (3:37:42) - Advice for young people (3:46:33) - Darkest moments (3:49:34) - Love and loss (3:58:57) - Immortality (4:02:53) - Simulation hypothesis (4:13:10) - Meaning of life
Chapters
In this podcast, Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University, discusses human nature, civilization, and the likelihood of alien life with the host.
00:00 - 02:54 (02:54)
Summary
In this podcast, Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University, discusses human nature, civilization, and the likelihood of alien life with the host. They explore the hidden motives in everyday life and the possibility of loud aliens and their effects on human civilization.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
This podcast discusses the different types of aliens and their potential impact on the universe, specifically focusing on "grabby aliens" who expand quickly and change things versus "quiet aliens" who are harder to detect and less impactful.
02:55 - 10:26 (07:30)
Summary
This podcast discusses the different types of aliens and their potential impact on the universe, specifically focusing on "grabby aliens" who expand quickly and change things versus "quiet aliens" who are harder to detect and less impactful.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Astrophysicist Adam Frank explains the probability of life appearing in the universe on a planet like Earth in proportion to the time that it's been ready for life to appear, and how each step in the process was hard.
10:26 - 19:53 (09:27)
Summary
Astrophysicist Adam Frank explains the probability of life appearing in the universe on a planet like Earth in proportion to the time that it's been ready for life to appear, and how each step in the process was hard.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The higher standard is to look at things accurately, know the truth, and do the right thing with it rather than being lied to.
19:53 - 27:26 (07:32)
Summary
The higher standard is to look at things accurately, know the truth, and do the right thing with it rather than being lied to. Sometimes the right thing to do is to help the person in front of you despite the analysis.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The Fermi Paradox arises from the contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations.
27:26 - 30:54 (03:27)
Summary
The Fermi Paradox arises from the contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations. This podcast explores the potential for cosmic archaeology and the search for other civilizations in the universe.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The likelihood of intelligent life on a planet seems to be low due to the rarity of favorable circumstances and the vastness of the universe, which poses catastrophic threats like 'vacuum decay'.
30:54 - 36:15 (05:21)
Summary
The likelihood of intelligent life on a planet seems to be low due to the rarity of favorable circumstances and the vastness of the universe, which poses catastrophic threats like 'vacuum decay'.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The Fermi Paradox is about the gap between the high likelihood of extraterrestrial civilizations existing and our lack of empirical evidence for, or contact with, any of these extraterrestrial civilizations.
36:15 - 41:12 (04:56)
Summary
The Fermi Paradox is about the gap between the high likelihood of extraterrestrial civilizations existing and our lack of empirical evidence for, or contact with, any of these extraterrestrial civilizations.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The podcast explores the idea that progress can be achieved through competition, and how ancient civilizations like Grabby Islands have accepted and encouraged internal competition to spur progress.
41:12 - 49:11 (07:58)
Summary
The podcast explores the idea that progress can be achieved through competition, and how ancient civilizations like Grabby Islands have accepted and encouraged internal competition to spur progress. However, questions remain on whether competition could become destructive in the face of advances in weapons technology.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The global elite's desire for global governance and regulation may lead to a resistance towards interstellar colonization as they aim to prevent corruption and maintain caution in instituting a single power.
49:11 - 58:36 (09:25)
Summary
The global elite's desire for global governance and regulation may lead to a resistance towards interstellar colonization as they aim to prevent corruption and maintain caution in instituting a single power. This passion also aligns with their advocacy towards addressing global issues like global warming and poverty.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
In this podcast, the speaker talks about how humans have evolved over the last 10,000 years and how the solar system without central control would lead to a lot of changes in the future.
58:36 - 1:05:08 (06:31)
Summary
In this podcast, the speaker talks about how humans have evolved over the last 10,000 years and how the solar system without central control would lead to a lot of changes in the future. The speaker also discusses his book, analyzing competition as the key lever of analysis.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Managers of investment funds should have logarithmic risk and be risk neutral with uncorrelated risk, while neglecting the future less, even if it doesn't impact humans much in the long-term.
1:05:08 - 1:11:31 (06:22)
Summary
Managers of investment funds should have logarithmic risk and be risk neutral with uncorrelated risk, while neglecting the future less, even if it doesn't impact humans much in the long-term. This involves transcending the narrow definition of descendants when it comes to investing for the future.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Land and rivers each contain unique species due to the different evolutionary processes that occur.
1:11:31 - 1:18:57 (07:25)
Summary
Land and rivers each contain unique species due to the different evolutionary processes that occur. While more evolution has happened on land due to the greater number of smaller species, rivers contain a high percentage of species due to their variation from place to place.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The median rate of war has significantly decreased in the last century, however, the implications for future civilization-threatening pandemics or nuclear war are still uncertain.
1:18:57 - 1:24:43 (05:46)
Summary
The median rate of war has significantly decreased in the last century, however, the implications for future civilization-threatening pandemics or nuclear war are still uncertain. Although the average war may seem worse than the median war due to the long tail, the devastation of a nuclear war has deterred its initiation.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The longer the period of time observed, the riskier the world appears to become.
1:24:43 - 1:33:59 (09:16)
Summary
The longer the period of time observed, the riskier the world appears to become. While science fiction often promotes the idea of a peaceful, cooperative society, historical data suggests a tendency towards destruction and war over time.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The possibility of contacting UFO aliens, who may not be grabby, and instead could have a more advanced understanding of communication technology, given their many years of experience, is discussed.
1:33:59 - 1:38:13 (04:14)
Summary
The possibility of contacting UFO aliens, who may not be grabby, and instead could have a more advanced understanding of communication technology, given their many years of experience, is discussed.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The prior probability of UFOs being aliens is roughly 1 in 1,000, making it more likely than a murder trial.
1:38:13 - 1:49:07 (10:53)
Summary
The prior probability of UFOs being aliens is roughly 1 in 1,000, making it more likely than a murder trial. The chances of any one person committing murder or being murdered is roughly 1 in 1,000.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The possibility of aliens communicating with humans by physically tapping on their shoulder is discussed, rather than the use of flying objects to observe human activity on Earth.
1:49:07 - 1:55:54 (06:46)
Summary
The possibility of aliens communicating with humans by physically tapping on their shoulder is discussed, rather than the use of flying objects to observe human activity on Earth.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The claim is that the aliens might use their clear and impressive abilities to impress and convince us to be at the top of their status hierarchy, but when there is an asymmetry of power, the memetic theory of the status hierarchy no longer applies.
1:55:54 - 2:04:28 (08:34)
Summary
The claim is that the aliens might use their clear and impressive abilities to impress and convince us to be at the top of their status hierarchy, but when there is an asymmetry of power, the memetic theory of the status hierarchy no longer applies.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The idea that people who receive more medicine are healthier is a common misconception, and self-help books aren't always a surefire way to improve your well-being.
2:04:28 - 2:14:13 (09:45)
Summary
The idea that people who receive more medicine are healthier is a common misconception, and self-help books aren't always a surefire way to improve your well-being. Keeping secrets over time can be difficult with a large number of people or an unorganized organization.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Humans are constantly trying to justify their actions by explaining their motives, especially when it comes to violating social norms, since we have developed the norm to punish those who do not follow them.
2:14:13 - 2:19:42 (05:29)
Summary
Humans are constantly trying to justify their actions by explaining their motives, especially when it comes to violating social norms, since we have developed the norm to punish those who do not follow them.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Economist and philosopher, Tyler Cowen, argues that individuals keen on making a significant intellectual impact tend to focus on well-established traditions, thus neglecting the overlooked areas between major traditions and big questions.
2:19:42 - 2:26:38 (06:55)
Summary
Economist and philosopher, Tyler Cowen, argues that individuals keen on making a significant intellectual impact tend to focus on well-established traditions, thus neglecting the overlooked areas between major traditions and big questions. Cowen emphasizes the importance of breaking out of the confines of small community conformity to make a big intellectual impact.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The priority in medicine should be about showing care, whether it's through medicine or other means.
2:26:38 - 2:31:22 (04:44)
Summary
The priority in medicine should be about showing care, whether it's through medicine or other means. It may require thinking, data collection, and looking at historical data to find cheaper and more effective substitutes for care-giving methods.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The speaker explores the advantages of being contrarian in one's thinking, including the potential for gaining attention and standing out in a crowded conversation.
2:31:22 - 2:38:29 (07:06)
Summary
The speaker explores the advantages of being contrarian in one's thinking, including the potential for gaining attention and standing out in a crowded conversation. They also discuss the way people tend to present themselves in a positive light to those around them.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Being an authority on information comes with some benefits, but it also has its costs.
2:38:29 - 2:44:04 (05:34)
Summary
Being an authority on information comes with some benefits, but it also has its costs. While an authority's credibility might initially come from being informative, they must also be careful not to convey too much information that might cause them to lose their authority altogether.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The institutional structures of organizations create incentives for individuals to focus on their local interests which could be detrimental to the radical thought and imagination required in science.
2:44:04 - 2:54:07 (10:02)
Summary
The institutional structures of organizations create incentives for individuals to focus on their local interests which could be detrimental to the radical thought and imagination required in science. Furthermore, the current state of information institutions is far from ideal and cost-effective.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The subsidizing of betting markets is a way to induce more research into particular questions, such as the mass of the electron neutrino.
2:54:07 - 3:02:53 (08:45)
Summary
The subsidizing of betting markets is a way to induce more research into particular questions, such as the mass of the electron neutrino. This benefits research patrons, such as governments and foundations who want to ensure they are getting their money's worth from the research they fund.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The convergence of evidence in physics has led to the acceptance of scientific concepts that were once considered shocking.
3:02:54 - 3:10:08 (07:13)
Summary
The convergence of evidence in physics has led to the acceptance of scientific concepts that were once considered shocking. The speaker shares their experience of studying physics and how it has influenced their understanding of other fields.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The process of engineering an AI that matches human intelligence is challenging because it requires studying various problems and understanding the numerous functionalities of the human mind that people may not always be aware of.
3:10:08 - 3:19:09 (09:00)
Summary
The process of engineering an AI that matches human intelligence is challenging because it requires studying various problems and understanding the numerous functionalities of the human mind that people may not always be aware of. Although there have been many innovations in smaller technologies, the advancement towards human-level AI is much more complicated.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
By examining the distribution of algorithm fixed costs and the history of computer science, it is possible to estimate the level of disruption and chunkiness in the future development of AGI.
3:19:09 - 3:26:52 (07:43)
Summary
By examining the distribution of algorithm fixed costs and the history of computer science, it is possible to estimate the level of disruption and chunkiness in the future development of AGI. This can be done by identifying algorithms with larger fixed costs and lower marginal costs.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
This podcast episode explores the concept of free market competition and how it applies to the field of political science, highlighting the beauty of allowing multiple firms to compete and letting customers decide which product they prefer.
3:26:52 - 3:33:29 (06:36)
Summary
This podcast episode explores the concept of free market competition and how it applies to the field of political science, highlighting the beauty of allowing multiple firms to compete and letting customers decide which product they prefer.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
In a discussion of political institutions and the future of government, the guest offers advice for young people on how to live a successful life in high school and beyond.
3:33:30 - 3:42:09 (08:39)
Summary
In a discussion of political institutions and the future of government, the guest offers advice for young people on how to live a successful life in high school and beyond.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
While technology has allowed people to influence the future in numerous ways, throughout history, the most significant impact individuals have had on shaping the future is through the act of having children.
3:42:09 - 3:46:37 (04:27)
Summary
While technology has allowed people to influence the future in numerous ways, throughout history, the most significant impact individuals have had on shaping the future is through the act of having children.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The podcast discusses the ability to recall certain emotions and memories only when one is in a similar emotional state and the importance of coping with negative emotions during challenging times.
3:46:38 - 3:53:27 (06:48)
Summary
The podcast discusses the ability to recall certain emotions and memories only when one is in a similar emotional state and the importance of coping with negative emotions during challenging times.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
Identical twins share a special bond that enriches their lives in unique ways.
3:53:27 - 4:00:37 (07:10)
Summary
Identical twins share a special bond that enriches their lives in unique ways. This podcast explores the different relationships identical twins have with different people based on degrees of similarity.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
This podcast episode discusses the Simulation Hypothesis and explores how interest in the past changes over time in relation to population growth.
4:00:37 - 4:08:25 (07:47)
Summary
This podcast episode discusses the Simulation Hypothesis and explores how interest in the past changes over time in relation to population growth.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The podcast discusses the value of fantasy storytelling in allowing creators to tell essential hero or love stories without obstacles, despite being less common than work-related content.
4:08:26 - 4:16:27 (08:00)
Summary
The podcast discusses the value of fantasy storytelling in allowing creators to tell essential hero or love stories without obstacles, despite being less common than work-related content.
Episode#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
PodcastLex Fridman Podcast
The prediction of the future is mainly based on a competitive environment that leads to the adoption of advantageous ideas and concepts, eventually leading to their global spread.
4:16:27 - 4:18:27 (02:00)
Summary
The prediction of the future is mainly based on a competitive environment that leads to the adoption of advantageous ideas and concepts, eventually leading to their global spread. Despite changes we make to our individual lives, this system is not applicable to the entire world.